AFL 2022: Every team’s run home rated, where your club will finish

We’ve had our say, now it’s your turn. Check out our predicted ladder and let us know where you think every club will finish at the end of the 2022 season.

The halfway mark of the 2022 AFL season is behind us.

There are only 93 games to go before September action rolls around.

Can Collingwood hold on to its spot in the top eight?

Are the Western Bulldogs still a chance?

SCROLL TO SEE OUR PREDICTED FINAL LADDER BELOW

Will Richmond make a run of it in the back half of the season?

Is an injury-hit Carlton cooked?

Who finishes as minor premier?

AFL reporter Chris Cavanagh tries to answer all your questions by looking at every side’s run home — and some look a lot tougher than others.

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Will your club's run home result in a finals berth?
Will your club's run home result in a finals berth?

1. MELBOURNE (10-2, 141.2%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $2.80, Top-8: $1.01, Top-4: $1.10

R13: Collingwood (MCG) W

R14: Bye

R15: Brisbane (MCG) W

R16: Adelaide (AO) W

R17: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R18: Port Adelaide (TIO) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) L

The reigning premiers have the wobbles, having lost their past two matches against Fremantle and Sydney after a 10-0 start to the year. However, you’d expect the Demons to bounce back against Collingwood on Queen’s Birthday before they head into their bye. The worry is that Melbourne is only 1-2 against fellow top-eight sides this season and faces six of those in the last 10 games. Given their current position, they won’t miss the top four. But games against Brisbane (twice) and Fremantle (once) could determine whether or not Melbourne finishes top-two and gets a home final.

Predicted finish: 4th

Melbourne is no certainty to finish top-two after losing its past two matches. Picture: Michael Klein
Melbourne is no certainty to finish top-two after losing its past two matches. Picture: Michael Klein

2. BRISBANE (9-3, 134%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $6, Top-8: $1.02, Top-4: $1.30

R13: St Kilda (Gabba) W

R14: Bye

R15: Melbourne (MCG) L

R16: Western Bulldogs (Gabba) W

R17: Essendon (Gabba) W

R18: GWS (Manuka) W

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) W

The Lions face five current top-eight opponents in the run home, plus dangerous teams just outside the top-eight in the Western Bulldogs and Essendon. However, they are sitting pretty to finish top four for a fourth-straight season. Brisbane has a 5-0 record at the Gabba this season – after going 9-2 last year – and has six more games to come at the venue. Key forward Joe Daniher is the standout name on a small injury list but is due back from a shoulder in coming weeks.

Predicted finish: 2nd

Fremantle’s Rory Lobb is in career-best form for the Dockers. Picture: Michael Klein
Fremantle’s Rory Lobb is in career-best form for the Dockers. Picture: Michael Klein

3. FREMANTLE (9-3, 129.9%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $7, Top-8: $1.06, Top-4: $1.60

R13: Hawthorn (Optus) W

R14: Bye

R15: Carlton (Marvel) W

R16: Port Adelaide (Optus) W

R17: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R18: Sydney (Optus) W

R19: Richmond (Marvel) W

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Dockers coach Justin Longmuir bristled at suggestions he get a ‘Flagmantle’ tattoo a few weeks ago. But after beating fellow top-four sides Melbourne and Brisbane over the past fortnight, the club is suddenly a serious premiership threat. Fremantle has gone 4-2 against current top-eight sides this season and has the best interstate record in the competition at 4-1. It beat reigning premier Melbourne at the MCG in Round 11 and now get the Demons at Optus Stadium in Round 20 as one of the double-up matches. It’s not an easy draw, with only two bottom-five sides to come in West Coast and GWS. However, you can pencil in a top-four finish, especially with two-time Brownlow Medal winner Nat Fyfe returning from injury this week.

Predicted finish: 3rd

4. GEELONG (8-4, 127.6%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $9, Top-8: $1.12, Top-4: $1.90

R13: Bye

R14: West Coast (Optus) W

R15: Richmond (MCG) W

R16: North Melbourne (GMHBA) W

R17: Melbourne (GMHBA) W

R18: Carlton (MCG) W

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Like the Lions, the Cats are gunning for a fourth top-four finish in as many years. Percentage plays an important role in that race and Geelong has a chance to gain plenty of that with two games against West Coast and one against North Melbourne to come. Five of their last 10 games are also a happy hunting ground in GMHBA Stadium, where the Cats have gone 3-1 this season after going 7-2 last year. The three interstate trips to come do not look to be particularly difficult ones against West Coast, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast. It’s conceivable the Cats could get on a real roll in the back half of the season. A second minor premiership in four years would be firmly in their sights.

Predicted finish: 1st

Could Jeremy Cameron’s Cats finish as minor premiers? There’s a good chance. Picture: Michael Klein
Could Jeremy Cameron’s Cats finish as minor premiers? There’s a good chance. Picture: Michael Klein

5. ST KILDA (8-3, 123.8%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $18, Top-8: $1.30, Top-4: $2.75

R13: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R14: Essendon (Marvel) W

R15: Sydney (SCG) W

R16: Carlton (Marvel) W

R17: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R19: West Coast (Optus) W

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) W

The Saints have one of the tougher run homes in the competition. But if you are going to have an impact in September, you need to be good enough to beat the other finals sides. Brett Ratten’s team faces seven of its last 11 games against current top-eight sides, including tackling Brisbane and Sydney twice. That will make it an uphill battle to finish top-four, but if they can’t achieve that the Saints would be keen to hang on to fifth or sixth spot and potentially get their hands on a home final at their favoured Marvel Stadium – where they have gone 4-1 this season. A small injury list and significant pressure on spots should help St Kilda’s cause in the back half of the season.

Predicted finish: 5th

6. SYDNEY (8-4, 118.8%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $11, Top-8: $1.15, Top-4: $2.25

R13: Bye

R14: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R15: St Kilda (SCG) L

R16: Essendon (MCG) W

R17: Western Bulldogs (SCG) W

R18: Fremantle (Optus) L

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) L

The Swans are on a high after wins over Richmond and Melbourne the past two weeks and have their sights set on the top four. Key forward Lance Franklin will be back from suspension after the bye in a further boost. The Swans play only four matches against current top-eight sides in the run home, two of those being against St Kilda. They have, however, lost two of their past three matches against the Saints, most recently by 29 points in Round 21 last year.

Predicted finish: 6th

Tom Papley’s Sydney side has had a big past two weeks. Picture: Michael Klein
Tom Papley’s Sydney side has had a big past two weeks. Picture: Michael Klein

7. CARLTON (8-3, 112.9%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $17, Top-8: $1.30, Top-4: $3.50

R13: Essendon (MCG) W

R14: Richmond (MCG) L

R15: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R16: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R17: West Coast (Optus) W

R18: Geelong (MCG) L

R19: GWS (Marvel) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

The Blues have been dealt some big blows as far as their top-four hopes go in recent weeks. After a Round 10 win over Sydney which put them 8-2, Michael Voss’ side was flying. But since then, Carlton has suffered a loss to arch rival Collingwood and has lost its best defender in Jacob Weitering to a serious shoulder injury which is expected to sideline him for another five or six weeks. The Weitering injury comes on the back of Liam Jones’ departure during the off-season, a season-ending back injury for Oscar McDonald and a bad hamstring which has forward-turned-defender Mitch McGovern out for another six weeks. That leaves the key defensive stocks very thin. Rebounding defender Zac Williams will not return until late in the year with a calf, while ruckman Marc Pittonet (knee) is in a similar boat. And key forward Harry McKay is still a couple of weeks away with a knee. The next four game will tell us a lot, but Carlton might be limping into September rather than striding.

Predicted finish: 8th

An injury-hit Carlton still has some work to do. Picture: Michael Klein
An injury-hit Carlton still has some work to do. Picture: Michael Klein

8. COLLINGWOOD (7-5, 103.1%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $34, Top-8: $2.75, Top-4: $13

R13: Melbourne (MCG) L

R14: Bye

R15: GWS (MCG) W

R16: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R17: North Melbourne (MCG) W

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Essendon (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) L

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

The Magpies have won three games on the trot and shape as a danger side in the back half of the season. They play an attacking brand and rank seventh in the competition for scores for this season. The most impressive thing has been that Collingwood has scored wins over current top-eight sides Carlton, Fremantle and St Kilda already this season. The Magpies face only four more games against teams above them on the ladder – but two of those are against reigning premier Melbourne. The prospect of a finals berth is becoming quite real for Craig McRae’s side – but they would need to pull off a couple more upsets and boost their percentage to get there.

Predicted finish: 11th

Collingwood coach Craig Macrae has his side humming, but it’s a tough run home for the Magpies. Picture: Michael Klein
Collingwood coach Craig Macrae has his side humming, but it’s a tough run home for the Magpies. Picture: Michael Klein

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-6, 118.5%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $23, Top-8: $2.25, Top-4: $12

R13: Bye

R14: GWS (GIANTS) W

R15: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R16: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R17: Sydney (SCG) L

R18: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS)

All the Bulldogs eggs are in one basket and that is the return of key forward Josh Bruce. He is expected to make a comeback through the VFL after the bye and should feature at AFL level soon after, having been cleared to return to full training after a knee reconstruction. The problem is, will Bruce’s return prove too late? The Bulldogs have won just two games against top-eight opponents this year – Sydney and Collingwood – and face six teams above them in the run home. Last year’s grand finalists have beaten up on poor teams, but haven’t got the job done against the better sides and now look a very real chance of missing finals. One slip up in the next two games after the bye and it might be bye, bye Bulldogs. But even if they win the next two, it’s going to be a serious uphill battle.

Predicted finish: 13th

10. RICHMOND (6-5, 117.4%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $15, Top-8: $1.55, Top-4: $3.75

R13: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R14: Carlton (MCG) W

R15: Geelong (MCG) L

R16: West Coast (MCG) W

R17: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R18: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R20: Brisbane (MCG) L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

The Tigers are the favourite among the teams outside the top eight to climb into the finals race by the end of the season, according to the bookies. And there is good reason why. Richmond faces only four teams above it on the ladder in a favourable run home. The Port Adelaide game this week is huge, as is the following match against a Carlton side which is ripe for the picking given its injury list. There are still games to come against each of the bottom-three sides – West Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon – and there are only two interstate trips left in the schedule. Coach Damien Hardwick has pointed to the quarters won ladder multiple times as a measure of his side’s performances this year. Richmond sits fifth on that table, with just a few bad quarters in various matches ultimately proving costly. We know the Tigers are capable of getting on a run in the back half of the year. Watch out, Collingwood.

Predicted finish: 7th

Can Tom Lynch help lead Richmond back to finals? Picture: Michael Klein
Can Tom Lynch help lead Richmond back to finals? Picture: Michael Klein

11. GOLD COAST (6-6, 108%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $81, Top-8: $2.75, Top-4: $23

R13: Bye

R14: Adelaide (Metricon) W

R15: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R16: Collingwood (Metricon) W

R17: Richmond (Metricon) L

R18: Essendon (Marvel) W

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) L

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

The Suns have soared to win four of their past five matches, including wins over top-eight sides Sydney and Fremantle. They are a very live finals chance, with far from the worst run home. The fact is the Suns face only four teams above them in their last 10 matches. If they win the games that they should against the teams below them, they will get to 12 wins. Score an upset in one of the other games and they’re playing finals for the first time in their history. But all that’s dependent on no slips ups – which you could not back the Suns to avoid. A September berth might have to wait until next year.

Predicted finish: 9th

12. PORT ADELAIDE (5-6, 104.9%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $34, Top-8: $3.25, Top-4: $18

R13: Richmond (MCG) L

R14: Sydney (AO) L

R15: Gold Coast (AO) W

R16: Fremantle (Optus) L

R17: GWS (AO) W

R18: Melbourne (TIO) L

R19: Geelong (AO) L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) W

R21: Richmond (AO) W

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Thursday night’s clash against the Tigers is huge. Win and the Power are still alive. Lose and it’s just about curtains on the season. Defeat this week would likely leave Port needing eight wins from its last 10 games to feature in finals – and it has five top-eight sides to come. Ken Hinkley’s side has done well to fight back from a 0-5 start to the year, but it was always going to be a long way back from there.

Predicted finish: 10th

Is it lights out for Ollie Wines and the Power? Not quite yet, but it could be soon. Picture: Michael Klein
Is it lights out for Ollie Wines and the Power? Not quite yet, but it could be soon. Picture: Michael Klein

13. HAWTHORN (4-8, 87.6%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $151, Top-8: $15, Top-4: $151

R13: Fremantle (Optus) L

R14: Bye

R15: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R16: GWS (GIANTS) W

R17: Adelaide (Marvel) W

R18: West Coast (MCG) W

R19: North Melbourne (Blundstone) W

R20: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R21: Gold Coast (UTAS) W

R22: Richmond (MCG) L

R23: Western Bulldogs (UTAS) W

It’s been hard to get a read on the Hawks all year. Their best footy has seen them take the scalps of top-four sides Geelong and Brisbane. Their worst footy has seen them lose to a struggling Essendon and cop a 67-point belting from Gold Coast. Finals won’t be happening this season for first-year coach Sam Mitchell. But the Hawks could certainly play a role in shaping the top eight. Expect a few more wins to come, including in Launceston where they are historically tough to topple.

Predicted finish: 12th

14. ADELAIDE (4-8, 82%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $401, Top-8: $41, Most Losses: $101

R13: Bye

R14: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R15: North Melbourne (Blundstone) W

R16: Melbourne (AO) L

R17: Hawthorn (Marvel) L

R18: Collingwood (AO) L

R19: Sydney (SCG) L

R20: Carlton (AO) L

R21: West Coast (Optus) W

R22: North Melbourne (AO) W

R23: Port Adelaide (AO) L

The Crows have dropped off the pace a bit since a solid first six weeks of the season which brought three wins and two losses by less than a kick. In the six games since, Adelaide has won only one match – by 31 points against bottom side West Coast last week. They get the Eagles again in the run home, as well as fellow bottom-two side North Melbourne twice. That should see the Crows at least equal last year’s seven-win season. They’d like to pinch another to show some continued progression, though.

Predicted finish: 14th

Adelaide will be reaching to better its seven-win season last year. Picture: Michael Klein
Adelaide will be reaching to better its seven-win season last year. Picture: Michael Klein

15. GWS (3-8, 86.7%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $151, Top-8: $21, Most Losses: $101

R13: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R14: Western Bulldogs (GIANTS) L

R15: Collingwood (MCG) L

R16: Hawthorn (GIANTS) L

R17: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R18: Brisbane (Manuka) L

R19: Carlton (Marvel) L

R20: Sydney (SCG) L

R21: Essendon (GIANTS) W

R22: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R23: Fremantle (Manuka) L

The Giants have scored just two wins against teams above them this season – those being triumphs over Gold Coast and Adelaide. After the departure of senior coach Leon Cameron, it’s not so much about this season anymore but instead it’s about the future. There are still five top-eight teams to play in the run home and five interstate trips, which will make the going tough.

Predicted finish: 15th

16. ESSENDON (2-9, 73.5%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $501, Top-8: $51, Most Losses: $15

R13: Carlton (MCG) L

R14: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R15: West Coast (Optus) W

R16: Sydney (MCG) L

R17: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R18: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

R19: Collingwood (MCG) L

R20: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R21: GWS (GIANTS) L

R22: Port Adelaide (Marvel) L

R23: Richmond (MCG) L

The Bombers are on a three-game losing streak and it doesn’t get any easier, with two top-eight sides to come over the next two weeks. There are a further three top-eight sides to play after that in a relatively tricky run home. After a finals appearance last year, it has been a bitterly disappointing season to date. Essendon fans can only hope the ‘review’ turns up some answers and their club nails some high draft picks at the end of the year.

Predicted finish: 16th

It’s hard to pencil in many more wins for Ben Rutten’s Bombers. Picture: Michael Klein
It’s hard to pencil in many more wins for Ben Rutten’s Bombers. Picture: Michael Klein

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-11, 52.3%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $1501, Most Losses: $2

R13: GWS (Marvel) L

R14: Bye

R15: Adelaide (Blundstone) L

R16: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R17: Collingwood (MCG) L

R18: Richmond (Marvel) L

R19: Hawthorn (Blundstone) L

R20: Essendon (Marvel) L

R21: Sydney (Marvel) L

R22: Adelaide (AO) L

R23: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

The bye can’t come quickly enough for the Kangaroos and under-pressure coach David Noble. It’s been a horror season to date that does not look like getting much better anytime soon. The Kangaroos’ only win has come against a depleted West Coast in Round 2 and unfortunately for North Melbourne, they do not play the easybeat Eagles again. If they cannot secure another four points, a one-win season would be the club’s worst result since 1972. Ouch.

Predicted finish: 17th

18. WEST COAST (1-11, 50.7%)

TAB Odds – Premier: $1501, Most Losses: $1.75

R13: Bye

R14: Geelong (Optus) L

R15: Essendon (Optus) L

R16: Richmond (MCG) L

R17: Carlton (Optus) L

R18: Hawthorn (MCG) L

R19: St Kilda (Optus) L

R20: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R21: Adelaide (Optus) L

R22: Fremantle (Optus) L

R23: Geelong (GMHBA) L

It has been a historically bad first half of the season for the Eagles, a proud and once mighty club. As it stands, their percentage is worse than Gold Coast’s was in its first season in the AFL in 2011 and Adam Simpson’s side would be extremely lucky to get to the three wins the Suns posted that year. This is absolute rock bottom and with five top-eight sides still to play, you suspect quite a few more beltings are on the way. Since entering the AFL, West Coast’s worst season has been a four-win campaign in 2008. It’s hard to see the Eagles getting anywhere near that from here.

Predicted finish: 18th

*All TAB odds current as of 5pm Tuesday June 7

Originally published as AFL 2022: Every team’s run home rated, where your club will finish

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