AFL news: Data shows more free kicks paid to side with home crowd advantage

Collingwood coach Craig McRae’s declaration that Dan McStay “would’ve been paid (a 50m penalty) at the MCG” on Friday night sparked intrigue over whether clubs travelling interstate get a raw deal.

McRae doubled-down this week saying “it was real” – and the data backs up the premiership coach.

Adelaide has been gifted the best run in front of their home fans when compared to their free kick tallies on the road.

The Crows have won the overall tally by 13 when clubs travel to Adelaide Oval to face them. They have lost the count by 29 on the road – an overall difference of +42.

Former Crows coach Neil Craig dubbed their supporters “the 19th man” in 2008. Privately, some umpires call it the “roar factor” and concede that parochial fans do impact their decision-making on a subconscious level.

On current ladder positions non-Victorian clubs would host all four finals in week one and potentially all eight finals until the premiership decider at the MCG.

It could be just the fourth time in 61 years that none of Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon or Richmond feature in September.

Finals-bound clubs Fremantle (+17) and Sydney (+13) came out strongly.

In a season of tight margins crowd noise could prove decisive in the race for the premiership.

The analysis excluded all neutral matches, only focusing on clubs hosting matches from interstate or in Geelong’s case all of its games at GMHBA Stadium.

The Cats have broken even for free kicks down the highway, but lost the count by 32 when playing outside of Victoria.

That has delivered them a +32 free kick swing when playing in front of their local crowd.

The biggest outlier was Greater Western Sydney, which has lost the free kick count by 51 at home and by only six when travelling.

But the Giants also average the fewest fans at their matches (12,422). Melbourne president Kate Roffey also suggested the effect was real when she urged Demons members to replicate the Collingwood Army.

“We’re on a mission to actually be louder and more obnoxious,” Roffey said.

“We need to be better at supporting our players and getting those umpire whistles to go our way.”

In 2017 former St Kilda coach Alan Richardson dubbed the effect the “noise of affirmation” after the Saints lost the count 8-23 against the Eagles in Perth.

“Our game is very grey, particularly from an umpiring perspective … with issues like holding the ball.

“You go in there (asking yourself) did he duck? Did he have prior opportunity? Did he dispose of the ball correctly? The umpire has to weigh all this up.

“And then there’s this incredible noise that potentially gives the umpire some form of affirmation. Or if you’re an opposition player there is no noise, there is no affirmation that the umpire is receiving.

“My experience is the no calls that are the bigger issue. I got really frustrated on the weekend and it’s the non-calls. That’s the point I’m trying to make about this ‘noise’, the influence it has on the umpires.”

Geelong coach Chris Scott said back then that the Eagles had perennially got a golden run at home.

“It’s not just one or two years. It’s over a long period of time,” Scott said.

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“And I think the umpires, to their credit, when you make that point, they agree with you.

“Maybe they haven’t publicly and … I might be stretching it, but my understanding is that when there’s a big crowd reaction, it’s human nature for you to respond and I think that they acknowledge it’s real.

“It’s not conscious but it might be a subconscious reaction.”

Originally published as AFL news: Data shows more free kicks paid to side with home crowd advantage