Seven reasons why Collingwood can still be dangerous come September

While they have had some form struggles over the past two months, here are seven reasons why the Magpies are still as dangerous as anyone this September.

1. TOP-FOUR IS BLISS

Friday night’s win over Melbourne and Gold Coast’s subsequent loss to Port Adelaide leaves the Magpies virtually locked-in for a top-four finish.

History tells us what that means.

Of the past 25 premiers since 2000, 23 of them have finished the home-and-away season top-four.

The two outliers were the Western Bulldogs, who finished seventh in 2016, and the Brisbane Lions, who finished fifth in 2024.

Strangely enough, no team has come from fourth spot on the ladder to win the flag over that period, which looks to be the Magpies’ most likely landing spot.

But there’s a first time for everything.

2. EXPERIENCE COUNTS

The Baby Bombers of 1993 and the fledgling Hawks of 2008 showed that you don’t have to be experienced to win premierships.

But generally come September, experience counts.

Collingwood has climbed the mountain before – just two years ago in 2023 – and its list hasn’t changed a lot since then.

The Magpies fielded 16 premiership players from 2023 against Melbourne on Friday night, among a 23-man side which was an average of 29 years old and boasted an average of 173.3 games of experience.

There were 13 players with 150-plus games of AFL footy under their belts – among them great leaders and organisers including Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe.

With the game on the line against the Demons, Pendlebury stepped up to record eight disposals in the final quarter and help his side across the line.

The seven ins from the 2023 premiership side were Dan Houston, Lachie Schultz, Dan McStay, Tim Membrey, Harry Perryman, Ned Long and Roan Steele.

The seven outs were Mason Cox, Jack Ginnivan, Bobby Hill, Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Nathan Murphy.

3. DE X-FATOR

It’s been a frustrating year for Jordan De Goey, who has missed games with Achilles, ankle and knee injuries and also copped a concussion from an innocuous training incident.

But his ninth game of the season on Friday night was clearly his best and showed he can play an important role this September.

Coach Craig McRae said post-game that De Goey was “a mile ahead” of where he expected him to be, with the Magpies’ fitness and medical staff having built the star midfielder beautifully.

De Goey logged 26 disposals, six clearances (four centre clearances) and eight score involvements against the Demons and displayed some of his explosive speed and power which had gone missing for some time.

While he missed a couple of targets early, he showed class with a goal on the run from 45m in the second quarter, which was one of eight score involvements for the night – the equal-most of any Collingwood player alongside Beau McCreery.

4. NO FEAR

The Magpies fear no one.

While they hold a 5-7 record in games against top-nine sides, there are only three teams they haven’t beaten at least once this season – Geelong, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.

The loss to the Cats came by just three points in round 8, while the Suns got them by six points at Carrara in round 18.

The Giants loss is ancient history from Opening Round, after which Collingwood was declared too old and too slow.

The Magpies went on to win 14 of their next 15 games after that early shock to the system.

If their opponent is Adelaide in a qualifying final in the first week of September, that won’t worry McRae’s men, either.

They beat the Crows by 10 points at the MCG in round 10, before suffering a narrow three-point loss in a rematch at Adelaide Oval in round 23.

Collingwood lost that recent encounter despite recording 71 inside-50s – the eighth-most ever recorded in a loss.

If the Magpies can dominate territory like that again, you’d expect them to kick a winning score.

Before that round 23 loss, Collingwood had also won 10 games on the trot at Adelaide Oval.

It has certainly been a happy hunting ground over the years.

5. CORRIDOR FOOTY

It took a 15-point deficit in the final quarter for Collingwood to “release the shackles” and take the game on at speed through the corridor against Melbourne.

But when the Magpies did, boy did they look good.

McRae conceded afterwards that his side had been playing “boring” chip-mark and long-down-the-line football until the final stanza, when it looked a “more dangerous team” as it brought the chaos.

Collingwood was the second-best side for transitioning the ball from defensive half to forward 50 in 2023, before slipping to 11th on those rankings this year.

However, the Magpies’ recorded season-high numbers for their defensive 50 to forward 50 and defensive half to forward 50 ball movement on Friday night.

It was a timely reminder that they are capable of challenging opposition sides with their ball movement if they get the balance right.

Faster ball movement also doesn’t allow the opposition to park the bus with numbers inside Collingwood’s forward 50, which has been a major problem in the second half of the season.

6. HOUSTON BUILDING

High-profile recruit Dan Houston had come firmly under the microscope in recent weeks as he battled for form.

But he played one of his best games in black and white on Friday night in what Collingwood will hope is a positive sign on the eve of finals.

Houston cracked 100 SuperCoach ranking points against the Demons for just the fifth time this season.

He recorded 22 disposals (equal-third best of the season), seven marks (season-high), seven intercept possessions (equal-third best of the season) and 448 metres gained (second-best of the season).

Houston’s no stranger to finals, either.

He played seven of them for former club Port Adelaide, including two preliminary finals.

7. FRONT HALF GAME

The more the footy is in your front half of the ground, the more scoring opportunities you can create.

The Magpies have been as good as anyone at locking the ball in their attacking end this year.

In games against top-nine sides, they have ranked No. 1 for time in forward half and No. 2 for both forward half intercepts and inside-50 differential.

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Once they get the ball inside-50, they have generally been fairly efficient as well, generating scores from 45.7 per cent of entries.

Goalkicking accuracy has just been a bit of a problem and was so again on Friday night as Collingwood found itself with 6.12 (48) on the scoreboard during the third quarter after wasting some early opportunities.

The Magpies rank 12th for goalkicking accuracy this year at 46.7 per cent – something they’d like to tidy up heading into finals when every moment counts.