Mick McGuane looks at the AFL’s preliminary finalists and who is better primed to take out the flag

We asked AFL analyst Mick McGuane to take a deep dive into both sides in a bid to determine who is most primed to take out the premiership – whether the Magpies and Cats play each other in the decider or not.

Here’s his findings.

BIGGEST STRENGTHS

COLLINGWOOD

It’s all about pressure and team defence for the Magpies.

They’re been the No. 1 defensive side in the competition — and put it on show against one of the best scoring teams in Adelaide last week.

Collingwood held the Crows to just 55 points — their third-worst return of the year — and only allowed their opponents to score from 30 per cent of their entries which was their worst result of the season.

Darcy Moore is the main man down back, but he’s well supported by Jeremy Howe who is likely to return.

Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard have been in good form, while Frampton plays a role as the deepest anchor.

Pressure up the ground — starting with the likes of Lachie Schultz and Beau McCreery in the forward 50 — allows the defence to press up the ground and disrupt opposition ball movement, which is why they are so hard to penetrate.

GEELONG

The Cats are more than capable at both ends of the ground.

Defensively they’re very sound, ranking No. 4 for points against and No. 3 for scores per inside-50 against in games against top-eight sides this season.

They defend both turnovers and stoppages well and that type of defensive profile holds you in good stead in September.

Tom Stewart is getting back to his intercepting best, but other players across the ground also bring strong defensive traits on a consistent basis.

Such actions helped to take away Brisbane’s territory game in the qualifying final.

The Lions recorded a time in forward half differential of -18min 33sec in that match — their worst result of the season.

The Cats win the footy back in good spots and can then punish on the scoreboard through a diverse forward line.

They had 13 individual goalkickers against the Lions and have scored 100-plus points in each of their past seven matches.

BIGGEST WEAKNESSES

COLLINGWOOD

One of the Magpies’ biggest issues has been their trouble scoring from stoppages.

In matches against top-eight sides this season, Collingwood ranks 15th for points from stoppages.

The side posted a better result of 5.6 (36) from stoppages against Adelaide in the qualifying final, but it hasn’t been a strong-suit across the year.

I’d love to see the Magpies be more efficient from their stoppage wins, getting the ball in the right hands and executing by hitting targets inside-50.

Between ruckman Darcy Cameron and midfielders including Nick Daicos, Jordan De Goey, Josh Daicos and even Lachie Schultz rolling up to the contest, they have the capacity to be strong in that area.

Contested ball has been Collingwood’s other weakness at times, the side ranking 15th for contested possession differential.

Winning contests both in the air and at ground level are particularly important in September.

Five of the Magpies’ seven losses this season have come when they have lost the contested possession count, but they went +4 against the Crows last week.

GEELONG

There’s not many chinks in the Cats’ armour, but their ability to defend opposition ball movement has been a slight issue at times.

Against top-eight teams this season, Geelong ranks No. 10 for restricting opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside 50.

Opponents who go slow against the Cats play into their hands, because it allows them to set up the ground the way they want.

But teams including GWS and Brisbane troubled Geelong during the home-and-away season with their speed of ball movement from back to front.

Geelong’s most recent loss game against the Giants in round 18, when Finn Callaghan, Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash got through and over the back of Geelong’s defensive structure.

GWS scored 17.9 (111) that day — the second-highest score conceded by the Cats this year.

If you lengthen the ground to open up space and go at speed, Geelong can be vulnerable.

TOP-END TALENT

COLLINGWOOD

Top-6 Players: Nick Daicos, Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Josh Daicos, Jamie Elliott and the combination of Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom

The Magpies have a good mix of top-end talent across all areas of the ground.

But the worry if they were to face Geelong in a Grand Final would be the Cats’ ability to tag some stars out of the contest.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Oisin Mullin and Mark O’Connor were deployed against Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey, as they were against Hugh McCluggage and Cam Rayner in the qualifying final.

Geelong also wouldn’t allow Darcy Moore to roll off and intercept at will like he did against Adelaide.

GEELONG

Top-6 Players: Jeremy Cameron, Max Holmes, Tom Stewart, Oliver Dempsey, Bailey Smith, Patrick Dangerfield

The Cats have all bases covered with their stars.

Cameron is the Coleman Medal-winning key forward, Stewart has got back to his best down back, Holmes and Smith are the hard-running midfield stars, Dempsey plays the wing role as well as anyone and Dangerfield is a tough match-up in attack who can also rotate onball and make his presence felt.

If they progress to play Collingwood in a Grand Final, I’m not sure which Pies defender will be able to stop Cameron.

On a lead, Cameron will beat Darcy Moore or Billy Frampton.

BOTTOM-SIX TALENT

COLLINGWOOD

Bottom-6 Players: Ned Long, Patrick Lipinski, Tim Membrey, Mason Cox, Billy Frampton, Harry Perryman

I love Ned Long’s competitiveness, but I’m just a little concerned about his decision making and execution at times in finals.

Lipinski can play a significant role, but if he doesn’t connect or become part of offensive transition then I’m not sure what else he brings.

Membrey was a moneyball recruit, while Cox provides a target down the line and ruck relief but should influence games more than he does.

Frampton can be exposed against some types of opposition key forwards including big monsters and Perryman is a role player who has forced his way into the back-six to play on rival smalls.

GEELONG

Bottom-6 Players: Oisin Mullin, Mark O’Connor, Jhye Clark, Lawson Humphries, Jack Martin, Jack Bowes

On pure talent alone, Mullin and O’Connor are ranked among the lowest players at the Cats.

However, both have shown that they can play significant roles shutting down key opposition playmakers – including in finals.

Clark – who was the sub against Brisbane – offers midfield relief, Humphries has a great story but can be exposed defensively at times, Martin is playing a role in front of the ball at his third club but doesn’t win enough of the footy and Bowes can be deployed in multiple positions but isn’t one of the first picked each week.

SQUAD STRENGTH

COLLINGWOOD

There were only two best-23 players for Collingwood missing in the qualifying final, both of whom could be available next week.

Defender Jeremy Howe is pushing to return from a groin and is an important player in defence.

Recalling Howe comes with some risk, though.

He would enter the preliminary final having not played more than a half in any game during the previous 10 weeks.

Bobby Hill is the other selection dilemma.

There will be questions around whether that discussion becomes a distraction to the incumbents.

The outside world would think that’s the case, but inside the four walls it wouldn’t be.

It will just come down to the trust element and whether Hill has done enough work and is ready to contribute in a big final, because in a schoolyard pick without knowing the circumstances you’d be selecting Hill over Roan Steele every day of the week.

GEELONG

The Cats have managed their squad beautifully, with only three players on the injury list in Rhys Stanley, Toby Conway and Jake Kolodjashnij.

Stanley is the watch with a hamstring, being no certainty to return in time for the preliminary final.

The ruckman had played every game since round 11 before missing the first final, but the Cats have quality back-up through the versatile Mark Blicavs who could fill the role again if required.

We might have seen Stanley for the last time if he hasn’t fully recovered by next week.

GAME CHANGERS

COLLINGWOOD

Biggest X-Factor Players: Jordan De Goey, Nick Daicos, Jamie Elliott, Brody Mihocek

De Goey timed his run nicely to get back fit and firing at the right time of year and is a midfielder who provides speed and power and has the ability to push forward and hit the scoreboard at crucial stages.

Daicos makes things happen with his decision making and execution and is as composed as anyone with the footy, while Elliott is a tough match-up who regularly bobs up and nails clutch goals.

Mihocek didn’t have a great qualifying final as he registered 0.5 against the Crows, but with the effort and workrate he brings he is more than capable of kicking three goals in a final and swinging the game.

GEELONG

Biggest X-Factor Players: Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield, Tyson Stengle, Ollie Dempsey

Cameron has an uncanny ability to bob up and kick three goals in the space of 10 minutes.

It makes him an ever-present threat in attack, but he can also get up the ground and be a quality connector.

You only have to look at Dangerfield’s final quarter against Collingwood in round 8 to see how he can change a game.

The Cats skipper logged 13 disposals (10 contested), five score involvements and one goal for the term to help carry his side to a three-point win.

Stengle can do freakish things in the forward 50 to spark his side, while Dempsey can get in behind the opposition defence and kick goals from the wing.

COACHING

COLLINGWOOD

Craig McRae is all about positivity and his optimism is clearly infectious for his playing group.

He has disregarded the ‘too old, too slow’ narrative and has put great faith in experienced veterans like Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, which has paid off.

The Magpies’ qualifying final side had an average age of 28 years, 9 months – by far the oldest of any team in week 1.

But experience can be most valuable in September.

McRae also hasn’t been afraid to make tough calls at appropriate times this year.

He realised that Tom Mitchell and Ned Long could not play in the same midfield, which is why Brownlow Medal winner Mitchell has been left out of the side for the past three games.

Another tough call now has to be made on Bobby Hill heading into the preliminary final.

GEELONG

Chris Scott’s record speaks for itself.

Fifteen years at Geelong, 10 preliminary finals, two premierships.

And Scott looks to be coaching as well as he ever has this year.

He’s got a great ability to see trends within a game and respond to them to either get an advantage for his side or take away a strength of the opposition.

That includes tagging, which Scott does successfully, going against the grain of many of his counterparts.

There’s a long-term approach in everything the Cats do as well.

With Rhys Stanley sidelined last week, Mark Blicavs had no problems filling in the ruck role because of the work the Cats have done developing him in different positions across many years.

Geelong has also seemingly had a recruiting strategy for many years to bring in good kickers, with their ball use often a big point-of-difference.

MICK’S VERDICT

I’m not writing off Collingwood by any means, but the Cats look best placed in this year’s premiership race.

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If these two teams are to meet in the decider, it would be a great Grand Final.

However, the Cats have been more trustworthy in contest and clearance across the year, have players who can limit the impact of key Magpies playmakers and boast so many avenues to goal which makes them difficult to contain.

Even Collingwood’s misery defence would be tested on the biggest day of all.