Mick McGuane’s premiership power rankings: Who’s in pole position for a flag?

We asked AFL analyst Mick McGuane for his updated premiership power rankings, taking in who he thinks is most likely to least likely to win this year’s flag — and why.

1. GEELONG

At this time of year, health can be your most important asset.

The Cats only have one player on their injury list in young ruckman Toby Conway, while experienced players like Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Ollie Henry and Jake Kolodjashni are playing VFL.

There’s nothing better than pressure on spots, which creates added accountability at the most important time of the year.

It has been a similar tale all season for Geelong, which has only used 31 different players.

Of those, 14 players have missed two games or less.

The Cats are well-placed across every line and in all key aspects of the modern game.

They can score strongly from both turnovers and stoppages, ranking No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in matches against the current top-nine sides on the ladder.

In front of the ball there are a multitude of threats, headlined by talls Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale who have kicked 124 goals between them this year.

Add in Tyson Stengle (29 goals), Ollie Dempsey (27), Shaun Mannagh (26) and Patrick Dangerfield (25) and there are weapons everywhere.

Geelong put that on show last weekend by kicking 16.15 (111) against Sydney last week – when Cameron was kept goalless.

I love the way the forward line shares the footy around, unselfishly passing to teammates in better positions and racking up goal assists.

Defensively, the Cats set up the ground really well, their backline is generally in-sync and they create front-half turnovers by pushing up and squeezing aggressively behind their attack.

They can go into different modes with the ball to limit opposition momentum swings and Mark O’Connor and Oisin Mullin can clamp down on the best opposition players when needed.

Another top-two finish awaits as this club looks to secure a second premiership cup in four years.

2. BRISBANE LIONS

As the reigning premiers, these Lions know what it takes when finals roll around.

I’m tipping Hawthorn to beat Brisbane on Saturday night, which could see the Lions finish outside the top-four.

But don’t forget that they won it from fifth spot on the ladder last year.

We haven’t seen Brisbane’s best on a consistent basis this season and there are a couple of injury concerns in Lachie Neale (quad) and Eric Hipwood (calf).

The Hipwood injury in particular is a dilemma, because Logan Morris and Sam Day can’t do it alone and require some aerial support in attack.

However, I maintain that this side’s best footy is as good as anyone’s.

I love the way the Lions put a high premium on possession through their kick-mark game.

They want to play the game at speed, but they also want to protect the footy through predictable ball movement.

Harris Andrews is the roadblock down back and is in incredible form.

He takes metres with his spoils but also grabs intercept marks and organises his troops brilliantly.

The Lions’ running defenders and wingmen are also huge assets.

Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot hit difficult targets coming off halfback, while Jasper Fletcher and Jarrod Berry get back to support the defence and then run selfless patterns to open up corridor opportunities when the team wins the ball back.

There is great balance in the midfield with ball-hunters in Neale and Hugh McCluggage, along with Josh Dunkley who not only wins his own ball but also provides a hard, defensive edge.

The Lions’ turnover game is the best in the competition with their ability to score from opposition turnovers as well as defend their own errors.

They also love a physical challenge and rank No. 1 for contested ball differential against the best sides this season – which bodes well for September.

3. COLLINGWOOD

Yes, the Magpies have lost five of their past six matches.

However, three of those losses have come by six points or less and outside of the Hawthorn game this team has been doing a lot right.

Their pressure – which underpins their performance – must remain high which morphs into keeping their system intact.

Collingwood has been creating scoring opportunities, but just hasn’t been able to finish its work.

The 71 inside-50 entries the side recorded against Adelaide last week was the eighth-most ever posted in a loss.

But that game showed that when the Magpies do win territory they are a hard team to penetrate back through because of their strong defensive system which will only be bolstered by Jeremy Howe’s return this week.

A defensive organiser, Howe adds to an already experience-packed side.

There has been a lot of focus on teams exploiting Collingwood’s lack of leg speed across the ground, but experience counts in September.

In games against top-nine sides this season, the Magpies rank No. 2 for points from turnovers differential and No. 3 for overall points against.

They are also No. 1 for time in forward half and No. 2 for inside-50 differential.

The problem is the scoring drying up over the past three weeks, during which time Collingwood hasn’t kicked more than 10 goals in a game.

Question marks over Bobby Hill’s availability for finals aren’t ideal, but Beau McCreery has returned to be a point-of-difference in the forward half or through midfield with his pressure and speed, while Jordan De Goey has played three games back in the senior side.

Dan McStay has been down on form and has kicked just two goals in six weeks, after booting 16 goals from his first 11 games.

If Collingwood can beat Melbourne by a comfortable margin on Friday night it should finish top-four and from there anything is possible.

4. ADELAIDE

They’ll finish as minor premiers, but I can’t have the Crows as my No. 1 seed anymore.

It might seem harsh and footy is a team sport, but Izak Rankine’s looming suspension could be a hammer-blow for this side’s premiership hopes.

As much as Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker get the job done as key targets in attack each week, Rankine is so dynamic and hard to defend against – particularly around forward 50 stoppages.

He’s a spark player for the team, who helped inspire wins over Hawthorn and West Coast in recent weeks.

Creative players who can do something magical and turn the game in a final are so valuable and Rankine is Adelaide’s biggest star in that regard.

Compounding his expected absence, fellow front half X-Factor Josh Rachele is still racing the clock to get back from a knee injury for the first final.

Even if he does get back for that game, Rachele could be underdone having not played since round 17.

Ben Keays can get to work alongside the three talls, but it would still be a huge hole without Rankine and potentially Rachele.

Adelaide’s stability down back is its strength.

Mark Keane has taken his game to another level, Josh Worrell is in All-Australian contention, Nick Murray has got going after a slow start to the season through injury and the experienced Rory Laird returns from suspension this week to join fellow rebounders Wayne Milera and Mitchell Hinge.

The one thing the Crows need to improve on is their ball movement from defensive 50 to inside 50 – which ranks 17th in the competition ahead of only North Melbourne.

However, they rank No. 1 for scores per inside-50 against in games against the top-nine sides and are also No. 1 for their pressure rating.

They play their best footy when they bring the heat and will need to deliver plenty of that if they are to go all the way this September.

5. HAWTHORN

Some aren’t sold on Hawthorn playing a four-tall forward line, but I think it’s a point-of-difference that could take them far this September.

Jack Gunston is at the centre of it with his experience and he has shown he can get off the chain with a favourable match up that comes from having three other tall targets.

Gunston has kicked 11 goals across the past two weeks with match ups on Billy Frampton and Steven May, being used out of the goalsquare where he can put his forward craft on show.

One of Calsher Dear, Mitch Lewis or Mabior Chol end up opposed to the opposition’s best defender.

This week, that will be Brisbane’s Harris Andrews and whoever gets him must be smart in their positioning to try and drag him away from being an aerial threat.

Sacrifice one tall to do that and there is still Gunston and at least one other tall on the ground at any given time who can take a mark inside-50 and hit the scoreboard.

The smalls at their feet – Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, Nick Watson and Connor Macdonald – are also more than handy and pose threats to any defenders with their ability to get up the ground and then get back inside 50.

At the other end, defenders James Sicily, Tom Barrass and Josh Battle are in-sync.

Sicily had a poor start to the year due to injury and Barrass and Battle needed time to settle, but they are now a cohesive trio with great intercepting ability.

Running halfbacks Jarman Impey and Karl Amon are also in good touch and are playing important roles to kickstart their side’s attack when the Hawks win the footy back.

Through the midfield, Jai Newcombe is made for finals and should lead from the front.

Hawthorn’s anticipation and willingness to get after the loose ball will also hold them in good stead this finals series.

In games against top-nine sides this season, the Hawks rank No. 2 for post-clearance contested possession differential.

The footy tends to spend a lot more time on the ground than it does in the air in September, so teams who are good below their knees can go far.

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS

I’m tipping the Bulldogs to beat Fremantle on Sunday and climb back into the top-eight.

But I’ve got a big question mark over them if they do make the cut.

We know how the Dogs have got plenty of scoring power between the tall forwards Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, who have kicked 106 goals between them this season.

Small forward Rhylee West is also in All-Australian contention after enjoying an outstanding year which has seen him kick 37 goals, while midfielders Ed Richards (22 goals), Matthew Kennedy (21) and Marcus Bontempelli (19) can also push forward and hit the scoreboard.

The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring side in the competition and are also No. 1 for scores per inside-50.

However, they’re also leaky in defence against the better sides.

From 12 matches against bottom-nine teams this season, Luke Beveridge’s team averages 65.3 points against.

But from 10 games against top-nine sides, they have coughed up an average of 92.5 points against.

They have only kept opponents below 80 points in two of those 10 games against the better teams.

If an opposition team can absorb inside-50s and go back at the Bulldogs with speed, they can generally do some damage.

Ruckman Tim English is the Bulldogs’ point of difference and another attacking weapon, though.

He’s had 656 hit-outs for the year but also slides forward, where he has had 28 scoring shots this year as well as 19 goal assists.

The Bulldogs’ midfield group around English is also strong in Bontempelli, Richards and Tom Liberatore.

The Bulldogs rank No. 1 for clearance differential and No. 1 for points from stoppages differential.

It is just that leaky defence which is the problem.

7. GWS GIANTS

The Giants are capable of beating any team on their day, given their scoring power and slick ball movement.

But they also have their weaknesses which some of the better teams have been able to expose this year.

In games against top-nine sides this season, GWS has ranked No. 2 for scores per inside-50 against and No. 1 for moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50.

But they also rank 13th for stopping their opposition from transitioning the footy from defensive 50 to inside 50, 17th for contested possession differential and 13th for points from stoppages differential.

While the Giants’ turnover game is in reasonable shape, defending stoppages is a concern.

They’re too aggressive around stoppages and are relying too heavily on winning the ball back at halfback and slingshotting from there.

Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash can do exactly that and counter-attack at speed off halfback.

Their creativity and ball use has been a key all season and is why GWS has been able to challenge the defensive structures of the best sides.

Jack Buckley’s return this week will bolster a strong backline that also features Sam Taylor and Harry Himmelberg, while small forward Brent Daniels could be an X-Factor as he prepares for a comeback after being sidelined since round 14 with an adductor injury.

However, Jesse Hogan’s foot injury is untimely, given he has kicked 43 goals from 15 games this season.

Through the midfield, Tom Green is a player that’s made for September and I can’t wait to watch up go up against the AFL’s best on-ballers when it matters most.

Stephen Coniglio also looks hungry after a frustrating year with injury, while Finn Callaghan penetrates the game but just wish he could hit the scoreboard more than he does.

Captain Toby Greene will understand the importance of finals footy and will be another player who will rise to the occasion.

8. GOLD COAST

Unlike all the other finals contenders, the Suns still have two home-and-away games to play.

Win them and they’ll qualify for their first ever finals berth in the club’s history.

The rise has come on the back of the work they are doing without the footy.

I could see improved understanding from a structural standpoint when watching training over pre-season and their defensive game has only developed since then.

In games against top-nine sides, Gold Coast ranks No. 6 for points against and No. 3 for scores per inside 50 against.

That backline is superbly led by Sam Collins, who plays such an important role on the best opposition forwards and has teammates feed off the energy he brings.

On the back of strong defence comes your attack and rebounding defender Daniel Rioli has been an important part of that this year.

But whether Rioli can return from a leg injury in time for finals to complement John Noble remains to be seen.

Bailey Humphrey (knee) is another injury concern, having matured and become such an important part of the side this year.

He is a gut-runner who adds midfield depth and has kicked 21 goals from 20 games this season.

The midfield group is still very strong, though, led by the combative Matt Rowell, the transition-runner Noah Anderson, the defensively-minded Touk Miller and the quality tap ruckman in Jarrod Witts.

The Suns were off the boil against GWS last weekend and were punished because of it.

The physical and mental lessons from that experience would have been discussed at length internally this week. The players must ensure playing slightly “flat” doesn’t happen again, especially this weekend against an emotionally driven Port Adelaide.

The Suns have earnt the right to play in this years finals and even have the capacity to win their first ever final if they bring their A-Game.

9. FREMANTLE

I rank the Dockers the least likely to win the premiership, because I don’t expect them to make the finals cut.

Sunday’s game against the Western Bulldogs is an early elimination final – and on the back of what we saw from Fremantle in its 57-point loss to the Brisbane Lions last week I’m not sure this team is up to the challenge.

The Dockers have impressed me this year and will be stiff to miss out on finals with 15 wins if they do go down to the Dogs.

But by a lot of measures this season they have been a mid-table team.

In games against top-nine sides, Fremantle has ranked No. 10 for scores per inside 50, No. 15 for transitioning the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50, and No. 14 for contested possession differential.

If the Dockers are to find a way to qualify for September, Alex Pearce and Brennan Cox are going to have big roles to play on Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton.

Forwards Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss will also need to step up and hit the scoreboard, along with Shai Bolton.

So good earlier in the season, Bolton has dropped off a little and is trying to do too much at times. He must get back to purely playing on instinct, and stop second guessing himself or even over playing situations, particularly around goals.

The big question in this all important clash against the Bulldogs: can Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young match it with the plethora of Western Bulldogs midfielders led by Marcus Bontempelli?

If they do, maybe victory is within their reach and the Dockers will play finals.