Revisiting the Adam Cerra trade that netted Dockers Jye Amiss two years on ahead of Fremantle, Carlton blockbuster

If given the choice between Jye Amiss and Adam Cerra, who would you rather have on your list?

It’s a timely impasse given Fremantle clashes with Carlton on Saturday afternoon at Adelaide Oval in an early litmus test of both team’s top four hopes. It’s even more pertinent because it’s now been two years since Cerra departed the Dockers and joined the Blues.

That trade netted Fremantle pick six in the 2021 draft. The net gain from that selection was Amiss, a highly-touted key forward from East Perth.

With two seasons of evidence to pick apart since the transaction was complete, it’s time to consider which club is winning the Cerra trade.

Let’s start with Fremantle.

Both the club and its fans expressed disappointment when Cerra requested a trade back home to Victoria at the end of the 2021 season.

It was Perth’s worst-kept secret. And it was up to the Dockers to make a fist of what they got in return.

Ultimately, Fremantle dedicated four years and 76 games worth of development to Cerra. He was taken with pick five in the 2017 draft, just three behind Andrew Brayshaw.

The Dockers believed the duo could headline Fremantle’s midfield for years to come. If Brayshaw was the better two-way runner, then Cerra pipped him with his damaging ball use.

The pair finished equal-third in Fremantle’s Doig Medal count in 2020. Brayshaw finished third again the following season with Cerra not far behind in fifth.

That would be the last year the pair shared the football field for Fremantle. The lure of home proved too strong for Cerra and he departed the Dockers at the end of the season.

Armed with two picks inside the top 10 after Carlton parted with pick six, Fremantle list manager David Walls was thrilled with “the players that are in the pool and what’s available at that point of the draft.”

But ultimately, the Dockers only had eyes for one.

“We knew they were pretty keen on him,” WAFC Talent Manager Adam Jones told CODE Sports. “It was a logical choice given their needs at the time.

“It was just going to be a matter of Jye reached their pick. Whether it was a matter of it being the COVID years and clubs not fully being across the WA boys well enough, he really shouldn’t have reached that pick.

“They’re very lucky to have him.”

Amiss had a prolific 2021 season for East Perth, kicking the most goals in the WAFL Colts competition with 51 from 15 games at an average of 3.4 per game. After starting the year behind Neil Erasmus and Matthew Johnson in the WA pecking order, he was a clear frontrunner by the end of it.

Father-son bids on Sam Darcy and Nick Daicos meant Fremantle had to wait an additional two picks until they could make Amiss a Docker. So with pick eight, the Busselton boy became the Dockers’ first top 10 key forward selection since Matthew Pavlich.

Seven months after losing Cerra to Carlton, Fremantle fans got their first look at what the Dockers got in return. Amiss made his AFL debut in round eight against North Melbourne when Matt Taberner (hamstring) and Rory Lobb (COVID) were both ruled out.

Like Pavlich, Amiss got a goal with his first kick. He brushed off experienced North Melbourne defender Aidan Corr and gave Fremantle fans their first of many looks at his slow, steady and deadly accurate set shot routine.

Amiss returned to the twos the following week where he suffered a serious kidney injury that threatened to end his season. But Amiss refused to give up on his debut season and made the unlikeliest of returns in Fremantle’s elimination final win over the Western Bulldogs.

Selecting a one-game teenager for Fremantle’s biggest occasion in seven years seemed like a gamble. But the risk was one worth taking, Amiss booting two goals in the Dockers’ extraordinary come-from-behind win.

It was a small taste of what was to come.

In his second season, Amiss played 22 games and kicked 41 goals. He ran fourth in the 2023 Rising Star and won Fremantle’s Beacon Award as the club’s most promising young player.

Three games into 2024, Amiss has kicked seven goals for an average of 2.3 per game, an above-average strike rate compared to other key forwards across the AFL. The 20-year-old is also currently tracking ahead of the likes of Charlie Curnow, Joe Daniher, Tom Hawkins and Josh Kennedy at the same stage of their careers when it comes to goals per game.

“We knew he was going to be a special player,” Jones said. “I haven’t seen a key forward in my time come through with his footy smarts, ability to use his body and read the play.

“What has surprised me I guess is how quickly he’s been able to display his talents at AFL level as a young key forward.”

So what have Cerra’s first two years looked like at Carlton?

In his first season, Cerra played 18 games and finished 10th in the Blues’ best and fairest. That output puts him ahead of Amiss.

It was only last year that Cerra consistently lived up to the hype. Emerging as the damaging midfielder that warranted a top 10 draft pick at the trade table, Cerra averaged 25.5 disposals, 5.1 inside 50s, 4.5 clearances and 4.8 tackles.

If he didn’t miss three games with a hamstring injury late in the season, there’s every chance he would’ve won Carlton’s best and fairest, instead finishing fourth.

In a midfield brimming with talent, Cerra was the cherry on top as the Blues made a deep run in September.

“His scintillating form helped Carlton turn its season around,” Geelong great Steve Johnson wrote in a column for CODE Sports last August. “Generates plenty of metres gained, sets up goals with his ball use inside 50, and kicks them himself.”

In the three games this year, Cerra has averaged 20.7 disposals, four inside 50s, four clearances and 5.7 tackles.

He’ll be crucial to Carlton’s chances of a win in the engine room against Fremantle. While Amiss has been in excellent touch up forward for the Dockers.

Some may argue that midfielders are a dime a dozen at the top end of the draft. But Jones, a veteran of eight drafts, believes there’s a reason clubs opt for midfielders so early and often.

“It may be more of a subjective view, but if looked at the success rate of midfielders who were taken early in the draft, it would be far higher than key forwards,” Jones said. “Clubs might sometimes feel there’s a risk-taking key forwards early.

“Particularly we see it a bit with the anti-density rule…key forwards don’t learn how to play AFL-style football until they reach the AFL. There’s that added element of risk regarding whether young key forwards will be able to adapt and play the style of football at the next level.

“The gun midfielders have elite athletic ability and footy smarts. They stand out above the rest.”

If the past five AFL drafts are any indication, the first Western Australian picked has been a key position player in four of them. It started with Luke Jackson at pick three back in 2019 and the trend continued with Logan McDonald (2020), Amiss (2021) and most recently Daniel Curtin (2023) with Eagles midfielder Reuben Ginbey (2022) the outlier.

“More key position players get taken earlier than potentially what they should because they’re harder to come by,” Jones said. “Clubs tend to roll the dice a little bit more.

“If you have that need, it’s a lot harder to fill. You can see how long it took Freo to try and find a replacement for Pav. If you don’t take a chance with a high draft pick on some of these talls, it could be a long time until you find that key position player that you need.”

In an alternate universe, Cerra would be delivering the ball to Amiss on the lead inside 50 on Saturday. Yet in this one, both clubs have reason to believe that they landed the better end of the deal.

On this rare occasion, it’s fair and reasonable to deem the trade a win-win…at least until the final siren sounds on Saturday and we might have a better idea of which side will go further in 2024.