Champion Data: Ross Lyon’s extreme devotion to defence makes him the most unusual coach in AFL history

Yet right now, Saints fans are the ones feeling privileged to have all of his idiosyncrasies back in the AFL.

Champion Data has delved into the ‘Lyon effect’ evident in St Kilda’s first outing, finding that while he has paraded a more cerebral public persona since his return, the coaching philosophy is still as defensive-edged as ever.

The defence of Ross

The ultra-defensive Lyon can sometimes seem a caricature in fans’ minds but Champion Data says that persona is rooted in reality.

Of the 47 coaches who have coached 180 games in the VFL/AFL since 1897, Lyon stands at the top of the mountain (or base camp, depending on your point of view) for defensive football.

When comparing match scoring for Lyon games to the average scoring of games during his tenure, his negative differential of 8.6 per cent is the greatest in league history, by some margin.

Lyon being the most defensive long-term coach in modern league history is not a shock. Unsurprisingly, Paul Roos and John Longmire, who Lyon shared a coaches box with at the defence-minded Swans teams in the early 2000s, sit just below in the top five.

But when you look at the other end of the scale, you can see the absolute philosophy shift St Kilda made last summer.

The treatment of Brett Ratten may have been heartless but when the Saints felt they needed a change, they made it wholeheartedly.

By the same measure, Ratten is the ninth-most attacking coach in modern league history, his games being 2.3 per cent higher-scoring than the average of games played in his coaching stints.

The difference between the two coaches is stark.

Lyon’s 8.6 negative differential is the greatest variance from average at either end of the scale. Statistically, it makes him the most unusual coach in AFL history.

Lyon loves a challenge

A lot of people asked why a coach who has come so close to winning a premiership would take a job with a Saints team that appears to be neither contending nor in a full-blown rebuild.

Aside from the emotional pull a St Kilda return had for Lyon, it should never be underestimated the intellectual stimulation that he feels from being in the coaches box.

Round one versus a finals-tipped Fremantle shaped as a bridge too far. Pundits were already predicting more mediocrity for the Saints and injuries to 13 players left them friendless.

Champion Data rated St Kilda the most injury-ravaged team in the AFL for round one, in terms of players missing from their best team (eight, compared to the next worst of five) and quality (24.2 in player ratings injury cost, compared to the next worst of 18.2).

Outside of St Kilda, the Saints seemed certain losers – a scenario Lyon thrives on.

Fremantle Docked

“We’ve had a big summer of hard work and change,” Lyon said post-match, having just put his signature philosophy of system over individual on full display.

With his two main forward targets in Max King and Tim Membrey missing, the match was shaped into the type of defensive struggle that Lyon has trademarked. The 119 total points scored was significantly below the league average of 174 in round one.

The Saints’ defensive stinginess was such that after the 7:11 mark of the third quarter, the Dockers didn’t kick a goal from 36 forward entries.

The defensive effort is even more commendable when you consider that the undermanned Saints, low on big targets, conceded 25 intercept marks to the Dockers. Since 2010, 77% of teams who have conceded those figures have lost.

But St Kilda’s well-organised defence conceded just 24 points off those turnovers, the third-lowest figure of the 57 teams to have conceded that many intercept marks.

Finally, perhaps the most telling statistic of an inventive coach making something of a seemingly hopeless situation: with no King or Membrey, Lyon’s Saints won an AFL game without a mark taken inside 50 by a tall target (key forwards, defenders or rucks).

No team achieved this in 2022 and only one did in 2021.

Dogs beware

What 2023 holds for St Kilda is anyone’s guess. A finals spot still seems a stretch but if nothing else, opposition coaches will be in for a searching test each week against the Saints.

This week’s opponents, the Western Bulldogs, are coming off an underwhelming performance by their much-discussed giant forward line. The question of whether Luke Beveridge keeps the faith with pre-season plans (notwithstanding an injury to Rory Lobb) is made all the spicier knowing that St Kilda awaits after their round one defensive effort. On the downside, St Kilda are missing two more first-choice players in Jimmy Webster and Jack Bytel.

This is the type of coaching challenge that Lyon lives for.

It’s why he’s back.