‘Nobody will touch it’: Why Lance Franklin may be the last player to kick 1000 goals

Gary Ablett Sr was the last to accomplish the feat 27 years ago and it will be at least that long before anybody matches Franklin’s effort. Such is the defensive nature of modern football, it’s not unreasonable to ask if 1000 goals will ever be achieved again.

Only five players in the history of the game have reached the millennial mark. Before Ablett there was Gordon Coventry (in 1934), Doug Wade (1974), Tony Lockett (1995) and Jason Dunstall (1995).

Dunstall believes the 1000 mark is unachievable in the modern game.

“There is no one playing the game at the moment that will get remotely near Buddy’s 1000,” Dunstall tells CODE. “The way the game looks at the moment, nobody will touch it.

“It’s hard to see the game turning full circle and going back to what it was. You can only see the game getting shorter as we go on so it would take incredible durability for someone to play an enormous amount of games and chalk up a big total.

“Certainly there’s nobody in the game at the moment who is going to do that.”

Dunstall’s assertion is supported by the data.

To put Franklin’s accomplishment in perspective, his three most comparable contemporaries – Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy and Tom Hawkins – are roughly 300 goals behind Franklin over a similar period and amount of games.

All three are certainties to be inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame upon qualification three years after their retirements. To be so far ahead of such an outstanding crop of players thrusts Franklin firmly into the ‘Legend’ conversation – and quite possibly into the ‘GOAT’ debate.

The next generation of stars are even further back at similar times in their careers to Franklin. Geelong’s sharp shooter Jeremy Cameron has 466 goals to his credit but turns 29 next month. Richmond spearhead Tom Lynch has 384 goals and will be 30 in October. At the same time in his career (10 seasons), Franklin had booted 595 goals.

The incumbent Coleman Medallist, Harry McKay, is even further behind Franklin at the same point in his career. Harry kicked 58 goals last year to top the goal kicking and has booted 129 goals in 67 games across five seasons. Franklin’s first five seasons produced 305 goals from 102 games.

That included 113 goals and a premiership in 2008, in just his fourth year in the AFL.

But it’s not just the numbers that set Franklin apart.

It‘s the manner in which he’s kicked them. He’s been a human highlight reel throughout his 16 years in the league.

“When you talk about Buddy, it’s what he did with the ball and not how he got it,” Dunstall says. “In the past, it has been all about the high flyers and the one-on-one beasts. I don’t want to underplay how hard he works to get into position to win the ball but when you talk about his highlights, it’s what he’s doing once he gets it.”

Franklin’s most famous goals are a case in point. His torching of Essendon’s Cale Hooker on the MCG wing and his encore effort at Adelaide Oval on Daniel Talia are perfect examples.

“Watching a bloke who is six-feet-six running, bouncing the ball along the wing at the MCG is something you never forget,” Dunstall says. “Poor old Cale Hooker – he’s got the inside running but he’s in quicksand. He’s run 50 metres and then threaded it through the eye of the needle. Who does that?

“There’s so many of them. Remember the one against Collingwood at the MCG where he hurdled Ben Stratton and a Magpie player in the middle of the ground and then kicked it from inside the square?

“These are incredible things. He turns getting the ball into something special.”

Franklin’s ton 14 years ago was the last 100-goal season in the AFL and despite rule changes, defence continues to dominate attack. What makes Franklin so special is the fact his career has flourished despite the rise and rise of stifling tactics.

Defensive strategies in the AFL essentially involve tackling and pressuring the ball carrier, running to defend space, structuring defences behind the ball and slowing the opposition’s ball movement; many adapted from other football codes and sports.

Australia is the Switzerland of football codes. We are fluent in four languages: Aussie rules, rugby league, rugby union and football. They all learn from each other. Swans coach John Longmire often exchanges ideas with his Roosters NRL counterpart Trent Robinson and Melbourne Victory boss Tony Popovic, on subjects including tackling techniques and limiting space via defensive formation.

Dunstall believes that only Franklin possesses the unique mix of speed, size, strength and kicking to crack the code of the restrictive schemes of modern coaches.

“You don’t get the luxury of a one-on-one contest in modern football,” Dunstall says. “Buddy has the athleticism to get into space and find some ball. But you just don’t get the opportunities these days with defenders dropping back into space and a third man up.

“Look at the old games. There will be a free kick in the middle of the ground and the player with the ball will have a lookup for options. Then he’ll find a one-on-one.

“It begs the question: will the game change again? Will it go full circle? Will there be a greater focus on attack than defence?”

Another former Hawk who knows a bit about goal kicking is Peter Hudson, who chalked up staggering tallies in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In the 1971 grand final against St Kilda,

Hudson tied Swans great Bob Pratt for the season record of 150 goals. Between 1968 and 1971, he booted an astonishing 541 goals at an average of 135 per year and 6.44 per game. Had he not suffered serious knee injuries, he would certainly have been in the 1000 club and perhaps set a mark that not even Lockett could have caught.

Hudson believes that despite modern defensive tactics and structures, it’s still possible to reach 100 goals in a season and 1000 goals in a career.

We just need to find the right man for the job.

“Absolutely it can be achieved again,” Hudson tells CODE. “There’s only one Buddy Franklin playing at the moment. I really believe it doesn’t matter what era you are talking about, if you have a Buddy, Tony Lockett, Jason Dunstall or Gary Ablett Sr, Peter McKenna or Doug Wade, they will score 100 goals in a season and could get to 1000 if they can avoid injury.”

Hudson believes that Franklin could have arrived at the 1000-goal milestone earlier in his career had he been more accurate.

“In 2008 when he kicked 113, he also kicked 88 points,” Hudson says. “People say no one will kick 100 again but Buddy kicked 100 and he’s still capable of kicking 10 goals in a game. Had he kicked straight, he could have kicked 150 in a season.”

While the champion Hawks differ on the likelihood of seeing 1000 goals again, they are in furious agreement over the need to revel in Buddy’s magic milestone.

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“Buddy is a sensational player, I’ve never seen anybody like him,” Hudson says.

“I think we need to celebrate these moments in the game because they are so rare,“ Dunstall says. “We need to put it into perspective about how big it is. I hope people understand this and they celebrate it far and wide. It’ll be fantastic.

“Let’s hope he goes berserk in round 1, what a great way to start the season that will be.”