Robert Craddock: Three reasons England can’t win the Ashes

Fast bowlers win Test series in Australia and, for all the hype around England’s outstanding batting line-up, England have not got an Ashes bowling spearhead or settled opening duo.

That’s a rare event entering an Ashes tour and a huge weakness.

This Ashes series may be a battle between two teams with upside down strengths but if England don’t bat like men possessed they won’t win.

There is a theory that Australia should toss up spicy decks to test England’s rampaging batters but a better road to victory might simply be to throw Bazball back in England’s face by giving them the flat decks they crave then back Australia’s great attack to shine where England’s bowlers struggle.

The magnificent five Test summer with India was supposed to sort out England’s pace attack but has only confused things.

England have won just one of the last 10 Ashes series in Australia, in 2010-2011, and a key to victory was the fact that not one but four fast bowlers — Jimmy Anderson, Chris Tremlett, Steve Finn and Tim Bresnan — shone in various roles to bankroll victory.

Who can they bank on this time? Who can be their Anderson of 2010-2011, their John Snow of 1970-71?

Jofra Archer is great at his best but was clocked at 131kph near the end of his two Test stint against India and may play only a couple of Tests.

Mark Wood, who has not played a Test for a year, has raw pace but is spotted so rarely these days he makes the Loch Ness monster look like a publicity tart.

Gus Atkinson took eight wickets in the last Test against India but it was his only Test against them and he has never played more than three Tests in a series.

England talk up Brydon Carse but his returns against India (nine wickets at 60) were so offensive we had reservations about printing them in this family-sensitive publication.

Josh Tongue, despite his 11-wide over in the last Test against India, was useful but he has played six Tests in 10 years of first class cricket so his career lacks big time ballast.

Ben Stokes bowled superbly against India but he broke down at the end of it. He’s a champion all-rounder but also heavily burdened and surely cannot carry the role of spearhead.

Another reason why England are outsiders to win the Ashes is that because Australia hold the Ashes they effectively start half a Test ahead because they only have to draw the series to retain the famous urn.

It will be a Mt Everest climb for England to win the series if they lose an early Test.

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And then there’s the lack of a spinner. Fans insist a spinners doesn’t matter. History tells us otherwise.

When England won in 2010-2011 Graeme Swann took a so-so 15 wickets at 39 but kept things tight so the fast men could pounce and England’s three previous Ashes series win in Australia were characterised by significant efforts by slow men Phil Edmonds, Geoff Miller, John Emburey and Derek Underwood.

Good luck England … you’ll need it.