English Premier League: Have new bosses bought bounce or big bump?

Five teams in the bottom six have now removed their manager/head coach, with Leeds United having dispensed with Jesse Marsch after Bournemouth, Southampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Everton changed manager earlier in the campaign. Only West Ham United, who are 17th, have kept faith in their manager, David Moyes.

In his book Soccernomics, Simon Kuper argues that the “new manager bounce” is more a consequence of managers getting sacked at the nadir of a team’s performance cycle.

“Any statistician can predict what should happen after a low point … from a low point you are always likely to improve,” he wrote. “The new manager doesn’t usually cause the swing. He’s just its beneficiary. Perhaps some players do briefly work harder to impress him, though on that logic clubs should sack managers even more often.”

Yet seemingly there are cases where a manager can undoubtedly galvanise a team (or inhibit them). In football the calculation owners will make is whether replacing a manager will be the exception to the rule that perpetuates the myth of a bounce. At just beyond the halfway point, now is as good a time as any to question whether changing managers is a wise decision.

BOURNEMOUTH

Sacked their manager:August 30

Position:19th

Bournemouth were the first club to change their manager when they sacked Scott Parker after a chastening 9-0 defeat by Liverpool. His successor, Gary O’Neil, has found that taking over a side short on riches is a far from easy task.

Expected goals (xG) is a useful measure to quantify a team’s performances, because it strips out the fickle nature of finishing. Bournemouth’s xG totals are roughly in line with their actual goals scored and conceded, but neither is impressive.

The team have an expected goal difference per game of -0.9, and injuries to players such as Dominic Solanke, Marcus Tavernier and Junior Stanislas have worsened their predicament. Since changing manager, the club’s points-per-game rate has declined and, with Newcastle, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool among their next six opponents, that number may drop further.

Bournemouth have looked competitive and tactically adept but short of the quality needed to survive. Changing managers has so far proven fruitless.

WOLVERHAMPTON

Sacked their head coach: October 2

Position: 15th

A 3-0 dismemberment of Liverpool last Saturday was seemingly testament to Wolves’ revitalisation under Julen Lopetegui, who has increased his team’s points-per-game output by one. The Spaniard has brought an improvement in both intensity and competitiveness and his tactical vision is becoming clearer.

Yet, statistically, Wolves appear lucky to have conceded only six goals from 11.2 xG against - Bruno Lage will be cursing his luck that under his leadership Wolves scored fewer than expected and conceded more than expected too.

But there is another factor to consider: the intangibles that exist beyond numbers. There is an inflection point at which performances affect results - luck and the ability to outscore xG runs out for all teams, eventually. But this effect works both ways: sometimes lucky results can boost confidence, which, in turn, produces better performances and therefore good results. But it remains to be seen how long Wolves can keep up their revival.

SOUTHAMPTON

Sacked their manager: November 7

Position: 20th

Southampton’s decision to sack Ralph Hasenhuttl has not paid dividends as the club’s performances have worsened. Since Nathan Jones’s appointment their goalscoring rate has fallen from 0.92 goals per 90 to 0.67, while their goals-conceded total has risen from 1.58 to 2.11.

In xG terms, Jones’s Southampton fare even worse: their xG difference per game has plunged from -0.33 to -0.52.

But most damningly of all, Southampton’s points-per-game rate of 0.86 under Hasenhuttl this season has halved to 0.43. A tough season for Gavin Bazunu, the young goalkeeper, has not helped. Like Bournemouth, a new manager has been unable to turn around a club significantly less well-resourced than its competitors.

EVERTON

Sacked their manager: January 23

Position: 18th

Sean Dyche’s immediate impact is proof of how some managers can buck trends. In his first and only match in charge, Everton statistically produced their second-best defensive performance of the season - conceding only chances worth 0.9 xG - against Arsenal.

Compared with seasons past, the players were low on confidence - one of those statistically intangible but critical elements in football. A team with a midfield quartet of Alex Iwobi, Amadou Onana, Idrissa Gueye and Abdoulaye Doucoure - a group of technically proficient, intelligent and ferociously dynamic players - have no business languishing near the bottom of the table.

Everton’s xG and goals-conceded statistics may be poor, but the squad undoubtedly has untapped potential; Frank Lampard may be one of those rare managers who inhibited his players. For now, the decision to replace Lampard appears to have been vindicated, but whether this is a reversion to Everton’s mean level of performance, or a temporary uptick, remains unclear.

LEEDS UNITED

Sacked their head coach: February 6

Position: 16th

Leeds are still searching for Marsch’s replacement, who will have to solve problems in both penalty areas. Leeds have displayed a chronic profligacy in front of goal in the rare moments they have created chances, and they have a dreadful defensive record.

Curiously, in the spaces between the boxes, Leeds look a competent unit; they are comfortable on the ball, patient in possession and aggressive in their pressing.

Statistically, a regression of sorts may be due, but a lot hinges on the young goalkeeper Illan Meslier, who has endured a tough season. Where a new head coach may have identified areas for improvement is in Leeds’s tactics: their tendency to fall behind limited their opportunity to press - one of Marsch’s tactical tenets.

And what about the team who have stuck by their man? By most accounts, West Ham have been below par, but they have never looked like a side who deserve to be 17th. Their xG total reflects this, with poor finishing accounting for most of their early-season struggles.

The statistics database Understat has an “expected points” model of the table, which accounts for the chance of quality created and conceded. According to that, West Ham should be sitting in ninth place in the league.

Backed by the board to arrest the team’s slide, Moyes is showing that persisting with a manager can pay dividends.

-The Times

Originally published as English Premier League: Have new bosses bought bounce or big bump?