Martin Samuel: Arsenal may find title even harder to win next season after Manchester City demolition

Of the four teams almost certain to graduate from the Premier League to the Champions League next season, three did not make it a year ago. Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are unlikely to return in this campaign, to be replaced by Arsenal, Newcastle United and Manchester United. The elite clubs are under threat like never before. Not just from usurpers such as Newcastle, Brighton and Aston Villa. From each other. The big six is a big seven now Saudi Arabia have joined the Premier League arms race and even a nation of maths dummies can see that seven into four does not go.

So while this has been a fabulous season for Arsenal, who remain top by two points with City having two games in hand – a lead about as likely to hold as a slim Conservative majority at an upcoming local council election – this was a game that laid out the challenge ahead. Manchester City could have led by five at halftime; Erling Haaland, blond mane flying by the end, could have had four, Kevin De Bruyne a hat-trick. And, next season, Arsenal will be in more than a simple head-to-head duel.

City won’t be weaker, we can be sure of that. The De Bruyne-Haaland combo that looked close to unstoppable last night (Wednesday) will still be around, barring injury. Yet in this campaign, City aside, Arsenal have barely looked over their shoulders. Chelsea are in disarray, Liverpool have been almost comically inconsistent; Newcastle aren’t quite there yet; Manchester United have work to do. This summer, that could, and will, change.

Liverpool’s rebuild is already under way. What impact might Mauricio Pochettino have at Chelsea, or Harry Kane at Manchester United? The budget to further transform Newcastle is in the region of pounds 150 million. Might Julian Nagelsmann take Tottenham in a new direction? All ifs, of course. And Arsenal will spend, too. They are consistently linked with Declan Rice, even though those inside West Ham United are insistent his name is yet to come up in conversations between the clubs. The point is this: the top two has been a two-horse race this season. And even if Manchester City are favourites again, the battle for second place next year, and third, and fourth, is going to be wide open.

This was the game, remember, in which we were going to see the real Arsenal again. Front-running is tough. Ask Tiger Woods or Paula Radcliffe. It takes a toll, physically and mentally. Arsenal’s recent stumbles have been seen as evidence of that. The wisdom was that it would be better for them now the title was regarded as Manchester City’s to lose. All the pressure would be on Pep Guardiola’s players. This was Arsenal’s free hit.

It didn’t feel that way. From the start, City played with terrifying freedom; Arsenal froze in the face of such intensity. They could have given away an early penalty. They could have handed the game to City with an hour to go. Arsenal have been brilliant this season, but they haven’t looked it in April, the month in which the title race starts, according to the man who has won it more times than any other. Manchester United under you-know-who excelled given the pressure of the season’s climax and Guardiola’s Manchester City are their natural successors. Arsenal, by contrast, have struggled. The drama of their comeback against Southampton last Friday obscured the fact that a home draw against the bottom club is a terrible result for prospective champions; so is a draw away to West Ham, given that elite teams, such as Liverpool, are still going to the London Stadium and winning.

And this was a humbling occasion. Only one club has ever beaten Arsenal three times in the same season and it is Liverpool. They did it in 1994-95, 1996-97 and 2020-21. Now Manchester City have joined the club. Yet Arsenal may have imagined themselves City’s rivals, perhaps even their equals, this season. It is daunting then to have lost all three times, two in the Premier League, one in the FA Cup, by an aggregate score of 8-2. So Arsenal cannot stand still and hope it will be any different next season. And this didn’t look like a gap that could be closed with the simple addition of a player such as Rice, for all his qualities. This is not just about catching up with Manchester City, but staying ahead of the rest, too. There has been so much to admire in Arsenal’s season, but the same could be said of Brighton, and now they are losing away to Nottingham Forest, having missed out on an FA Cup final on penalties.

Disappointment takes it out of a playing group and there is no doubt Arsenal will be hurt surveying the league table this morning. That is their name, in first, and history tells us to expect late twists. A team as good as City takes the random out of the calculation, however. Guardiola may be talking up the opposition for City’s games in hand – he pegged Brighton as the best team in the world, working the ball from back to front – but nobody is buying this notion of fragility. This is a quite masterful team and may prove the greatest we have seen. As for Arsenal, there’s always next year. Except it is already shaping up to be just as tough and testing as this season, and probably more so.

Originally published as Martin Samuel: Arsenal may find title even harder to win next season after Manchester City demolition