Martyn Ziegler: Chelsea, this is what a well-run Premier League club looks like

The league table of spending on wages and amortisation – which reflects spending on transfers over several years (for example, a pounds 20 million signing over four years would be recorded as pounds 5 million per year) – makes for grim reading for fans of Chelsea and Everton over this season and last.

By contrast, the data-driven approach taken by those strategic thinkers at Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford has made them a shining example for those who are convinced that success cannot only be bought and proves that there is another way.

The secret is not simply crunching data; patience, vision, strategy and long-term thinking are also crucial. At Brighton, for example, a lot of time is spent on succession planning: if a key player or executive gets bought or is poached, for example, who will step into their shoes? Succession plans for about 30 individuals at the club are regularly reviewed.

The perfect illustration of this came when Graham Potter moved to Chelsea. Brighton had long been monitoring Roberto De Zerbi after his success in Italy managing Sassuolo, despite their scant resources, and continued to do so when he moved to Shakhtar Donetsk. Once Potter decided to go, they moved quickly to get their man.

But of course, the data is the key. Tony Bloom, Brighton’s owner, and Matthew Benham, his counterpart at Brentford, made their fortunes in the betting industry, and not just by taking gamblers’ money: they both used data to win bets too.

Omar Chaudhuri, the chief intelligence officer at the sports intelligence agency Twenty First Group, said: “Brighton and Brentford are held up as the poster boys for that type of approach and it is no surprise that their owners have a background in the betting industry where your whole business lives or dies on getting the right data. Thinking hard about how you use data is in their DNA and it can get you a competitive edge.

“A lot of clubs have quite traditional setups and trying to bring data into that status quo can be challenging and seen as an afterthought rather than fundamental to the process. The right people and the right skills are critical.”

Under the table of wages and amortisation combined, Chelsea and Everton – along with Wolverhampton Wanderers – are the worst-performing teams this season in terms of a return on their spending. That may seem obvious, but that was also the case last season for both clubs in terms of number of points secured, even though Chelsea finished in the top four.

By contrast Brentford and Brighton are eight and seven places respectively higher than their position in the spending table this season, and it was the same in the previous campaign, where both finished six places higher in the Premier League than the spending table.

Insiders at the clubs accept there is less expectation from their fans to sign well-known players. In fact the opposite may be true, with supporters being intrigued at a virtually unknown arrival and then following his development closely.

At Chelsea and Everton, the pressure to snap up established names is huge. For example, bringing in Kevin Schade, the 21-year-old Freiburg forward just signed by Brentford, who registered the second-fastest sprint in the Bundesliga last season, would hardly have answered the clamour for new blood at the more established clubs.

The same could be said for Kaoru Mitoma, the 25-year-old Japan forward signed by Brighton for pounds 2.5 million; he has made a dramatic impact this season. Pascal Gross is 31 and has never won an international cap, yet by some measures the Brighton midfielder has been one of the top performers in the Premier League over the past five seasons. Ivan Toney, 26, was a striker who failed to make it at Newcastle United, but Brentford saw enough to suggest he could shine in the top flight.

Yet Chaudhuri believes that the data approach can be, and has been, successfully harnessed by the top clubs too.

“It is very hard as owners and executives to cut through that expectation [from fans] but if you have a firm belief in what you are doing and that it actually works, then given the right people and the right skills you can get success,” he said.

“One big club that has taken a data-driven approach and succeeded is Liverpool and if any club has a fanbase with expectations it is them.”

Chaudhuri cited the example of Liverpool signing Andrew Robertson, 28, from Hull City and Georginio Wijnaldum, 32, from Newcastle – both players had been relegated before the club moved in to buy them.

“Some clubs might discard the idea of signing them just because they had been relegated but Liverpool saw the quality of those players,” he said.

Of course money still remains the heart of it all. By and large, the wages and spending table is a good guide to final league position.

Newcastle are the best-performing club this season compared with their spending in 2020-21 but since then a Saudi-backed takeover has occurred with new money bringing key personnel into the club: head coach Eddie Howe, sporting director Dan Ashworth and a number of players.

But even at St James’ Park the success is not just about cash. Howe and Ashworth achieved remarkable results with limited resources at Bournemouth and Brighton respectively and their approach in the North East has revitalised a club that was dispirited and drifting under the former ownership of Mike Ashley.

The time factor is also significant: Brentford and Brighton could afford to build slowly and not expect overnight success. Potter may be finding that patience is a scarce commodity at Chelsea, where price seems to be everything and value nothing.

If there is one lesson for Todd Boehly, Chelsea’s co-owner, it may be that the most important next signing will not be Joao Felix or Marcus Thuram, but someone with thick glasses, poor fashion sense and a PhD in statistics.

Originally published as Martyn Ziegler: Chelsea, this is what a well-run Premier League club looks like