Why Liverpool’s mentality monsters lack menace of old

WIDE OPEN

Liverpool have faced 51 big chances this season, which is defined as a situation in which a player should reasonably be expected to score. The tally, which includes penalties, averages out at three a game.

Only Leeds United (with 55) and Fulham (54) have a worse record in the top flight. Arsenal have faced only 19 such chances; for Mikel Arteta’s side the work of the defensive midfielder Thomas Partey has been key to that solidity. In contrast, Fabinho, the Liverpool and Brazil midfielder, has endured great difficulties – although, in mitigation, Liverpool are far from a compact unit. Alisson, the Liverpool goalkeeper, has prevented nine goals already this season.

In recent campaigns Liverpool have adopted a high-risk, high-reward approach when using a high defensive line. The sight of opponents breaking behind Liverpool’s back four is not particularly new: at the start of last season Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan all did so successfully. However, after 17 Premier League games last season, Liverpool had faced only 21 big chances (30 less than in this campaign at the same stage).

PRESSING PROBLEMS

During the World Cup, Liverpool held a training camp in Dubai. It was a chance to reset and work on rediscovering the fundamentals of their success.

“We’ve been working a lot on pressing, counterpressing and choosing our moments, because in games we’ve not done that enough at times, and in some games we’ve sort of half-pressed,” Andrew Robertson, the left back, said last month. “That is the worst thing you can do because if you go into it and you’re not 100 per cent, teams can pick you off.

“If you were to ask Liverpool fans, or fans of other clubs, you know, ‘How do you describe Liverpool in the past five years?’ I think the answer would be they press offensively, as it’s been so good.”

The passes-per-defensive-action (PPDA) figure for Liverpool this season – that is, the number of passes their opponent is allowed to make in their own defensive and middle third of the pitch – is 12.2. That figure is the highest it has been during Klopp’s seven-year reign.

However, within that average there are huge fluctuations. In Liverpool’s first seven games, the PPDA was 9.6. In the past ten, it has been 14.1.

There are two main theories about why Klopp has toned down the press. In those first seven games, Liverpool won only twice and perhaps there was a feeling that the team could not maintain such intensity after reaching three finals last season.

In the Premier League rankings, Liverpool’s totals for distance, high-speed runs and sprints are all down on the previous season, though this can be affected by having more possession. Alternatively, by pressing less and inviting opponents on to them, there is more space in behind for Liverpool’s attackers, particularly Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez, to try to exploit.

Going behind early in matches means Liverpool have tried to force passes forward but have not been well positioned to counterpress if the ball is intercepted. That makes them more vulnerable on the counter-attack.

LACK OF RUTHLESSNESS

Against Brentford, Liverpool could have been 2-0 up. Nunez was denied by Ben Mee’s goal line clearance, while Kostas Tsimikas shot unconvincingly at David Raya with only the goalkeeper to beat. Liverpool’s clinical edge is absent.

No team has had more big chances in the top flight in 2022-23 than Liverpool (who are yet to be awarded a penalty), but their conversion rate is the worst in the league, at 27.6 per cent. They have scored less than their xG (expected goals) in six of their past nine league games.

Nunez was largely unfortunate on Monday evening with a well-taken effort scrubbed out for offside, but the Uruguay striker has to become more ruthless, especially because it seems as if Salah, on the right, is involved less when he is central.

Cody Gakpo, signed from PSV Eindhoven for an initial pounds 37 million last week, will help offensively, as will the return to fitness of Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz.

Liverpool have won every game in which they have scored first in the Premier League this term. They have conceded first in ten matches and won only one of those: when Fabio Carvalho scored a 98th-minute winner against Newcastle United in August. During the entirety of the 2021-22 Premier League campaign, they conceded first on 12 occasions.

MENTALITY MINNOWS

One of the biggest disappointments for Klopp against Brentford would have been the failure of his side to kick on after Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s header halved the deficit. Eight points from eight away games is a dismal record for a side who won two trophies – and came close to winning four – last season.

Only six times in the history of the Premier League have Liverpool boasted a worse record. The club used to pride themselves on being “mentality monsters” and the team no one wanted to play against, but they are far too accommodating now.

MIDFIELD MALAISE

“We can go through it. Where do you want to start?” Klopp said in July. “So, Fabinho, [Jordan] Henderson, Thiago [Alcantara], [James] Milner, [Naby] Keita, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott, Carvalho, Oxlade-Chamberlain. Now you tell me what kind of player are we missing?”

The Liverpool manager has always been headstrong when addressing the debate about his midfield and since he made those comments Stefan Bajcetic has lengthened his list of options. Such faith is proving misplaced.

The counterpoint was made at the time that Liverpool’s midfield is ageing and injury-prone, two factors that stop intensity being maintained.

Klopp has signed one out-and-out midfielder – Thiago for pounds 20 million from Bayern Munich in 2020 – in the past four years, although he tried for AS Monaco’s Aurelien Tchouameni in the summer before he chose Real Madrid.

It remains to be seen whether reinforcements arrive this month, with Klopp having stated that he cannot splash the cash like he is playing “Monopoly”.

Liverpool’s plans are tied to the battle with Real and Manchester City for the signature of Jude Bellingham, the Borussia Dortmund teenager who may command a fee of pounds 130 million.

But more than one midfield recruit is needed, with Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Milner all out of contract at the end of the season.

– The Times

Originally published as Why Liverpool’s mentality monsters lack menace of old