With nine weeks to go, there are still so many questions to answer this Premier League season

But 2022-23 really is a season like no other: when it finishes, it will be the first in which English top-flight clubs have played matches relating to the same campaign across 12 consecutive months, beginning with the Community Shield last July and ending with the FA Cup final on the first Saturday of June.

But that’s not all. There has been a striker like no other, Erling Haaland, who, if he stays fit and maintains his scoring rate since joining Manchester City, will obliterate Andy Cole’s record of 34 goals in a Premier League season. There has been a spending spree like no other, the unprecedented £600 million lavished on players across the campaign’s two transfer windows.

And there has been a dugout cull like almost no other, the nine Premier League sackings leaving 2022-23 only one short of the overall record for manager sackings in a season with nearly 30 per cent of its games still to be played.

Above everything, there has been the competitiveness. There is not a single team without something to play for, still, with even the two teams bang in the middle of the table (Chelsea and Aston Villa) not entirely out of contention for a European place. Who will win the title? Who’ll finish in the top four? Who’ll make Europe? Who is going down? Nothing is clear - except that, when the league restarts with the humdinger of City v Liverpool on Saturday, the storylines, twists, turns and intrigue will keep coming thick and fast.

Who will win the title?

Arsenal, as Leicester City were in 2015-16, are the surprise leaders who many people keep expecting to stumble, even though they pass test after test. Eight points clear, they have the comfort of knowing that no team have ever lost a title race with a lead even half as big at this stage.

The response of Mikel Arteta and his young Arsenal team in moments of pressure suggests they are not going to be found wanting for mental strength.

There were the stoppage-time goals to win after twice being behind at Villa Park, a vibrant victory over Liverpool after getting pegged back twice in the game, the taking of all six points from two north London derbies and big away wins against Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion and Fulham - trips that have been the undoing of other top teams. This is a team with the quality, the consistency and the sheer minerals to succeed; if City are to overhaul them, it seems it will have to be through City’s own efforts rather than any Arsenal collapse.

Pep Guardiola’s challengers have hit form and, of course, are serial title winners. Haaland is a phenomenon, Rodri is having an imperious season and Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias, Ilkay Gundogan and John Stones are all enjoying good moments. But are City really capable of putting together the kind of run needed to overtake the leaders? They would probably need to win ten, if not 11, of their remaining games and this season City have just not been that consistent - their longest winning streak in the league is a meagre three matches.

The key factors have been Kevin De Bruyne’s unexpected inconsistency, an unsettled defence and lack of intensity in certain games. Haaland let slip recently that he was signed to win the Champions League and that is City’s priority. Still in the FA Cup as well, they may have to play 18 more games, compared with Arsenal’s ten.

Should Arsenal avoid defeat at the Etihad Stadium on April 26, the title race will be over but Arteta’s team could still lose that match and prevail. Because of their mentality, their momentum and their sheer range of threats - from Bukayo Saka, to Martin Odegaard, to Gabriel Martinelli, to Gabriel Jesus, to Leandro Trossard, to a prowess at attacking set pieces - I expect them to do so. Though it may be by only a point or two.

Who will finish in the top four?

Manchester United are too well motivated and set up under Erik ten Hag to slip from the Champions League spots. The contenders for the remaining place can each make a decent case. Newcastle United are in the best position, Tottenham Hotspur have the best fixtures, Liverpool the best squad and manager and Brighton are in the best form.

However, Spurs have just chucked away a good opportunity in the FA Cup, slunk out of the Champions League against moderate opponents and imploded when 3-1 ahead against Southampton. Antonio Conte, the head coach, has tried to pin these tame surrenders on Daniel Levy, the chairman, and his own players - despite having his mate as sporting director, being paid one of the highest manager salaries (£15 million a year) in the world and getting the backing to spend more than £200 million (including loan fees) on nine players in less than a year to renovate the squad.

It’s a mess. Conte’s splenetic post-Southampton press conference is likely to bring his dismissal and there seems too much soap opera and too much of a blame-game going on at the club (with fans split too) for Spurs to unify, refocus and take advantage of their run-in.

There is too much of a dip in performance when they go away from Anfield (with big players such as Virgil van Dijk, Darwin Nunez and Trent Alexander-Arnold culpable) to have confidence that Liverpool will put together the run they need. Their next three fixtures (City and Chelsea away and Arsenal at home within the space of nine days) could put them out of contention before a relatively kind run-in begins.

Those close to Jurgen Klopp say he is reinvigorated and in fightback mode, and appears optimistic about addressing issues, but the biggest ones - his midfield and the age profile of his squad - cannot be fixed until the summer transfer window.

That leaves Brighton and Newcastle. Surely Brighton couldn’t do it? Well, don’t discount anything with the outstanding Roberto De Zerbi in charge and the team impressing week after week with their control of matches and the decisive way talents such as Kaoru Mitoma and Alexis Mac Allister are playing.

But Brighton’s fixtures are tough and Newcastle’s five-point lead over them is valuable. Eddie Howe’s team are hard as hell to beat, press ferociously, defend superbly and, in Bruno Guimaraes, boast one of the best players in the league. Further tipping things their way is Alexander Isak, who, since returning from injury, has provided the speed, guile and cutting edge that Newcastle lacked at the top of the pitch.

Isak’s talent has never been in doubt, just his ability to stay off the treatment table - and if he stays fit there’ll be bare-bellied Geordies wobbling happily in the away ends of Champions League stadiums across Europe next season.

Who is going down?

This feels like the toughest question of all to answer, with a remarkable nine teams in the mix and only four points separating Crystal Palace in 12th from Southampton in 20th. In such circumstances only one win, or one round of games going against them, can transform perceptions of how much danger a team are in.

Battle-hardened managers know you must focus on your own performance, own game plans and own most winnable matches. It’s about ignoring what other sides are doing and chipping away until you have the points total likely to guarantee survival, probably in the high 30s this season.

This is what Sean Dyche, Roy Hodgson and David Moyes will do and why Everton, Palace and West Ham United seem likely to survive - though the way Palace have not just stopped scoring but stopped even creating chances is a particular worry.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest seemed safe until nosedives in form. Playing talent and the quality of their head coach should get Wolves out of the mire, while, largely thanks to Steve Cooper and his culture-building skills, the spirit at Forest is remarkably strong, despite recent results and the squad containing so many players signed inside the past nine months. Forest will just about be OK.

So: Leicester, Bournemouth, Leeds United or Southampton? It’s so hard to call; however, Gary O’Neil has had Bournemouth punching above their weight since succeeding Scott Parker and gravity is likely to catch up with them. Ruben Selles has made a strong impression since becoming Southampton manager, yet the club are in the worst position and play five of the top seven, so the odds are on them dropping too.

Whether they go down or not, Leicester are in a mess. It is near the end for Jamie Vardy, who has scored only one league goal this season, and, by June, Youri Tielemans, Jonny Evans, Daniel Amartey, Caglar Soyuncu and Nampalys Mendy will be out of contract and James Maddison, Wilfred Ndidi and Kelechi Iheanacho will enter the last years of their deals.

A new direction is needed but Maddison consistently makes the difference in games and, even though they are inconsistent, Iheanacho, Harvey Barnes and Patson Daka have enough good moments for Leicester to take advantage.

Yet Leeds have the excellent Javi Gracia in charge, Rodrigo back, a good midfield and the X factor of Wilfried Gnonto, so there’s a case for them too. My bet is that whoever is on the wrong end of the result when the sides meet at Elland Road on April 25 will go down.

Biggest surprise of the season

Sadly it is a very unwelcome one: the upsurge in players surrounding and hounding referees and they and their coaches showing contempt for officials. Five years after it launched the Respect campaign, the FA is now trialling body cameras for grassroots referees in an attempt to combat the abuse they face, with the whole game influenced by what happens at the top.

In the Premier League, the FA has had to lay so many charges against clubs for failing to control players that the aggregate total in fines for such offences stands at pounds 932,500 for the season, with 15 of the 20 clubs falling foul, according to an investigation by The Sun.

All that is before action is taken against Aleksandar Mitrovic for his disgraceful tirade and manhandling of Chris Kavanagh in Fulham’s defeat by United last weekend - a game in which Marco Silva, the Fulham head coach, was shown a red card for abusing officials. Silva was fairly unrepentant and there is a feeling within refereeing that some of the bad behaviour is influenced by petulant managers.

Even Arsenal, with their aesthetic football, are serial offenders, having racked up pounds 185,000 in fines from four separate charges of failing to control their players.

The referees hope this season is a blip and their new chief, Howard Webb, has visited clubs to foster understanding - but clubs should be taking their own action to combat this scourge.

Who is player of the year?

Right now, there are two outstanding candidates: Haaland and Saka. Haaland for the obvious and Saka for being the most important player in a team in pole position for the title. Both are young, fearless and frighteningly gifted and, as ever, you want to wait until the end of the season to make a judgment - to see whose contribution proves most influential to the campaign’s outcome. At the moment Saka is shading it, but if City win the Premier League or Champions League on the back of his goals, Haaland will be the choice.

- The Times

Originally published as With nine weeks to go, there are still so many questions to answer this Premier League season