FIFA World Cup 2022: Tom Rogic among 21 locks in Socceroos squad as Graham Arnold sweats on fitness of key men

Arnold has already chosen a 55-man preliminary squad, which FIFA demanded in mid-October.

From this list, Arnold has a system to whittle the numbers down.

“I’ve picked five players per position on that list,” Arnold tells CODE Sports. “I’ve got a list of ten things I’m closely looking at, and just go down the list and see how many boxes players tick.”

CODE Sports understands 21 players are regarded as certainties for Qatar.

Tom Rogic is among them, even though he has yet to start a game at West Brom.

Arnold has said Rogic will be welcomed back with open arms, despite his decision to withdraw from the final stages of Australia’s World Cup qualification campaign, and reports out of West Brom suggest he is nearing full capacity despite his limited game time.

With key players including Harry Souttar, Kye Rowles, Martin Boyle and Ajdin Hrustic under injury clouds just weeks out from the tournament in Qatar, Arnold insists adaptability will be a vital commodity in squad selection.

“We need players who can play in different positions, different roles,” Arnold says. “And it’s also about how many players can back up with the short turnaround between games.

“There’s going to be potentially a few high risk selections, due to injuries, that we’ll have back-ups for just in case.”

With that in mind, concerns over Fran Karacic (hamstring) and Nathanial Atkinson (ankle) have brought St Mirren’s Ryan Strain into calculations. Japan-based Thomas Deng could also make it based on the adaptability criteria, given he can play centre-back and right-back.

It is thought there will be five central defensive players chosen, so if Deng isn’t picked, Bailey Wright, whom Arnold rates highly for his leadership qualities, could force his way in despite limited game time at Sunderland recently.

The understudy to Aziz Behich at left-back is wide open with Joel King (Odense), Callum Elder (Hull) and Jason Davidson (Eupen) all in contention. King has battled for game time in Denmark and Elder has a hamstring issue which could mean Davidson, a member of the Socceroos’ 2014 World Cup squad, becomes a late bolter given he can provide cover at left centre-back, where he has been playing in Belgium this season.

Aaron Mooy is flying at Celtic, but cover is needed.

The two Scottish-based terriers, Cameron Devlin (Hearts) and Keanu Baccus (St Mirren), have built big reputations in a short amount of time at their respective clubs. Both have been causing havoc in midfield and could be chosen for the Socceroos if Arnold prefers the option of pushing Mooy forward in games if the situation demands.

Jackson Irvine, Denis Genreau and Riley McGree, who can all play further forward if needed, look locked in for the other central midfield role. Irvine’s teammate at St Pauli, Connor Metcalfe, could make a late push if Arnold only goes for one player as back up to Mooy.

Despite concerns over Hrustic’s injury status and Rogic’s game fitness, it is unlikely Arnold will consider another attacking midfielder option.

Roma’s rising star Cristian Volpato could have been an option, but the Sydney born and raised teenager has shown no interest in pledging allegiance to Australia just yet. Volpato, who scored a winner for Roma in Serie A last week, has been playing for Italy’s underage teams and, while Arnold has tried to convince him to choose Australia, Volpato has been reluctant to confirm his national team.

It is not a decision based entirely on the heart. European clubs are forever wary of Australian players jetting off to the other side of the world every international break, meaning Volpato has potentially quite a bit to lose while still forging a name for himself at Roma.

As for the front three Socceroos positions, the knee injury Boyle will carry into the tournament could require Arnold to shuffle the depth chart elsewhere to fit in one more of the locally based quartet of Marco Tilio, the rejuvenated Daniel Arzani, cult hero Jason Cummings and new sensation Garang Kuol.

It looms as a desperately tight call.

Tilio is a player Arnold knows and trusts. Arzani has been off the radar and didn’t impress the coaching staff during the Olympics, but is a different player now at Macarthur. Cummings and Kuol at the Mariners, meanwhile, have jumped from total obscurity in the last year and into contention.

All four have the ability to produce magic from nothing.

As for Arnold’s weekend, every call from his support staff will bring a feeling of dread.

“At the moment, the physio is not the most popular person for me when I see his name on the phone,” Arnold says. “It’s a very stressful time for myself and the other coaches around the world, with a very short lead in, only seven days, and then most of the players playing three games next week.

“I’m keeping the fingers crossed.”

Whatever the composition of the final squad, a herculean task awaits the Socceroos in Qatar.

The past week has served as another reminder.

Group opponents France and Denmark, one of whom will need to have a bad World Cup for Australia to progress to the last 16 for the first time since 2006, had players all over Europe competing in huge games domestically and in the Champions and Europa Leagues.

At the same time Denmark’s warrior-like Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg scored a belting winner to put Tottenham through the Champions League knockout stages, the man he may well mark in Qatar, Rogic, was coming off the bench for last-placed West Brom in the Championship.

And when Kylian Mbappe danced through Juventus’ defence like witches hats to score a wonder goal for PSG, Boyle was travelling from Edinburgh to a specialist in Manchester, fearing the worst about his knee.

Fortunately, Boyle’s injury isn’t as bad as first thought, however those instances place heightened pressure on the Socceroos getting squad balance just right.

The task for Australia in Qatar looks daunting, but the same was said of the Socceroos in June when Rogic withdrew before the giant task of taking down Peru.

It can be done, but a lot needs to go right from here on.