Clinton Payne’s 2025 Melbourne Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

A field of 24 runners has been declared for the 3200m contest.

Here is Clinton Payne’s runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Tuesday, plus his tips, trifecta and First4 picks.

All prices quoted are TAB fixed odds, correct at 4pm on Sunday, November 2, 2025.

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1. AL RIFFA

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Weight: 59kg

Barrier: 19

Betting: $9

Comment: One of the few international raiders in single figure odds, he is being asked to carry 59kg – a weight seven horses have tried to carry since 1992, with none of them successful and only one placed. And the list is elite – Dunaden (2012), Yeats (2006), Vinnie Roe (2002), Vintage Crop (1995), Juene (1995), Better Loosen Up (1992) and Super Impose (1992). The last horse to carry 59kg or more to win the race was Rain Lover (60.5kg) – that was 56-years-ago in 1969. He has outstanding UK form, the trainer and jockey have both won the race twice, but history is stacked against him.

Verdict: Too much against him.

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2. BUCKAROO

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Williams

Weight: 57kg

Barrier: 12

Betting: $9

Comment: The runner in this year’s race that lands here with serious Australian weight-for-age form, which has been a successful Melbourne Cup recipe in modern times. Yet to miss a place in four starts this spring, most notably his close second behind former Melbourne Cup favourite Sir Delius in the Underwood (1800m) and his last-start close second behind Via Sistina in the Cox Plate. He carried 54.5kg in the race last year and the ride was questionable; he should have been in the finish. Now carries 57kg and handles wet ground.

Verdict: Going too well to ignore.

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3. ARAPAHO

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Weight: 56.5kg

Barrier: 15

Betting: $51

Comment: Veteran galloper that’s been racing below his best for much of this preparation. He’s a weight-for-age Tancred (2400m) winner that also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) during the autumn but after a great return in the Winx Stakes back in August, he’s only battled in the four runs since. Proven at the trip and loves it wet so rain-affected ground could see him improve.

Verdict: It would be a great story, but it won’t be happening.

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4. VAUBAN

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Weight: 56.5kg

Barrier: 2

Betting: $26

Comment: He’s been one of the favourites in the past two Melbourne Cups, but he struggled in both races, finishing 11th and 14th. Now trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he’s had four starts this spring and he’s mixed his form – good twice, plain twice – but the positive is, his form pattern indicates he’s due to run well. Vauban at his best has each-way claims, Vauban at his worst is back with the also-rans. Good luck working out which one turns up.

Verdict: It won’t be a case of third time lucky.

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5. CHEVALIER ROSE

Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu

Jockey: Damian Lane

Weight: 55.5kg

Barrier: 5

Betting: $31

Comment: His 3000m-plus form is especially strong in Japan, and he won a race in October last year called the Kyoto Daishoten (2400m) which proved beyond previous successful Japanese runners in the Melbourne Cup – 2006 winner Delta Blues and runner-up Pop Rock. Chevalier Rose also won the Stayers Stakes (3600m) last November, a race in which last year’s runner-up Warp Speed finished fourth 12 months prior, so his form references stack up. His record indicates a wet Melbourne Cup wouldn’t be to his liking. The problem I see with his form is inconsistency – his four runs this year have been average.

Verdict: Expect Melbourne’s weather to take care of his chances on Monday.

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6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE

Trainer: Alessandro Botti

Jockey: Stephane Pasquier

Weight: 55.5kg

Barrier: 9

Betting: $8.50

Comment: This French galloper placed in the Prix Kergorlay (3000m) in France in August and that race has launched three previous Melbourne Cup winners – Americain (2010), Dunaden (2011) and Protectionist (2014). He made a great start to his Australian career with a solid closing fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and it’s fair to expect this impressive grey specimen will be better suited to the larger open spaces at Flemington. In addition, his record indicates a wet Melbourne Cup would only enhance his chances.

Verdict: He’s got genuine each-way prospects – over to you, Mr Pasquier.

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7. MIDDLE EARTH

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Weight: 54.5kg

Barrier: 13

Betting: $41

Comment: Came to Australia regarded as a Cups prospect. Made an instant statement when winning a Prelude to the Australian Cup back in March. Unplaced in his next six starts before his latest outing when trainer Ciaron Maher put a set of blinkers on him and he looked sharper, finishing third in the JRA Cup during the Cox Plate carnival. Now out to 3200m and that should see further improvement. Gun jockey in the seat. Has won on soft but unknown if it gets really wet.

Verdict: Good trainer, good jockey. Add him to your exotics.

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8. MEYDAAN

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: James McDonald

Weight: 54kg

Barrier: 22

Betting: $17

Comment: In July and August last year he finished fourth behind two of Ireland’s best stayers Illinois and Jan Brueghel, albeit beaten a fair way, in the Queens Vase (2816m) and the Gordon Stakes (2414m). This season he’s placed second twice in six UK runs over 1600m to 2400m. Made his Aussie debut in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), posted three wide throughout and wasn’t disgraced. Gets James McDonald this time so likely to be under the odds. Wet a query.

Verdict: He’s under the odds due to the J-Mac tax and I doubt he has enough class.

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9. ABSURDE

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 4

Betting: $23

Comment: This is his third trip to Australia. Finished out of the placings on both previous occasions and this year he’s being asked to carry the most weight (53.5kg) in his three attempts. Since he was here last year, he won a 3195m Hurdle but don’t let that put you off – Vintage Crop won over the hurdles before his famous Melbourne Cup win in 1993. His form this season has been consistent and he was OK in the Caulfield Cup, finishing seventh and running through the line. He can handle it wet.

Verdict: Don’t think he can win but wouldn’t shock if he ran into the placings.

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10. FLATTEN THE CURVE

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 17

Betting: $21

Comment: He’s been doing most of his recent Northern Hemisphere racing in Germany, winning four of his five starts this season, with his only defeat coming back in June when unplaced on a heavy track in the Belmont Gold Cup (2816m) in Saratoga in the US. His most recent performance was a 5-1/2 length win over 3319m, also in the US at Kentucky on firm ground. If nothing else he’s got the best named jockey in the race – Thore Hammer-Hansen.

Verdict: Impossible to line him up so he stays under notice.

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11. LAND LEGEND

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 16

Betting: $71

Comment: He was one of the star staying performers in Australia last spring, winning The Metropolitan (2400m), finishing third in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) then far from disgraced when eighth in the Melbourne Cup. His first-up run this prep was huge but things have gone south since – and his Caulfield Cup run last start was a shocker, with no excuses offered. Trained by Chris Waller and they’re pushing on but he needs to improve out of sight.

Verdict: It would take something special from Waller to have him figuring on Tuesday.

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12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 11

Betting: $71

Comment: The greybeard of the race at nine years of age. He’s been a grand old horse over several seasons, but can he win a Melbourne Cup at his age? It’s safe to say no. He was at his peak in 2022 when he started favourite in the Caulfield Cup but even then, he was unplaced in that and the Melbourne Cup. He’s been OK in his lead-up races but there’s plenty ahead of him. Handles it wet.

Verdict: Doubt he’ll be happy when he gets to the top of the straight and sees there’s still 500m to go.

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13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD

Trainer: Kris Lees

Jockey: Tim Clark

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 24

Betting: $71

Comment: He did win the City Tatts Club Cup (2400m) at Randwick three starts ago but the opposition that day basically handed the win to him as the jockey got away with murder in front. Since then, he was a forgive run in The Metropolitan (2400m) he was put out of play when suffering bad interference in the straight then he had his chance last time in the Geelong Cup (2400m). Don’t know if he wants it too wet and I doubt he’s capable of better than a midfield finish.

Verdict: This is not going to be Lloyd Williams’ eighth Melbourne Cup winner.

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14. HALF YOURS

Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 8

Betting: $6.50

Comment: Here’s the new boy on the block. When he was sold for $305,000 out of the late Colin McKenna’s dispersal sale, his advertisement described him as a “progressive miler to middle distance horse that has the ability to perform in Saturday metropolitan races”. You bet he does; he’s the Caulfield Cup winner and now favourite for the Melbourne Cup. He’s won five of nine for his new owners and the way he ran through the line at Caulfield indicates the step up to 3200m is within reach. Also proven on heavy ground so the track condition won’t stop him.

Verdict: The horse that ticks all the boxes bar the distance but expect him to tick that box too by 3.05pm on Tuesday.

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15. MORE FELONS

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 23

Betting: $41

Comment: He’s the smoky of the Australian runners on form. Didn’t do much in his first two runs of the prep then in The Metropolitan (2400m) he came from last, clearly running the best last 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals. In his last run in the St Leger (2600m) he was unsuited by a pedestrian pace but again his last 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals were race-best. This is the race he’s been set for; he meets Royal Supremacy 3kg better from their Metrop clash where a length separated them and Ciaron Maher regards as him as his stable’s best chance. A wet track is OK; he’s going to run well at odds.

Verdict: The best roughie in the race.

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16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 6

Betting: $23

Comment: This is his second trip to Australia. Last year he won the Geelong Cup (2400m) then finished 12th in the Melbourne Cup. This time he paid for the trip by winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) which cost him 1kg in weight. His form in the UK prior to returning to Australia this season was average at best, only one placing in seven runs. Would prefer a firmer track.

Verdict: Wasn’t good enough last year and nothing will change on Tuesday.

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17. FURTHUR

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Michael Dee

Weight: 52kg

Barrier: 7

Betting: $21

Comment: Lightly raced international raider that finished second in the Queen’s Vase (2816m) during the Royal Ascot carnival in June and that’s a race you see bob up in a lot of successful imported gallopers that come to Australia during their careers. Since then, he won the Geoffrey Freer (2715m) at Newbury then was safely held in the St Leger (2921m) at Newbury, but his better form tied in there. In the Queen’s Vase he beat home Rahiebb and that horse was a close second in the St Leger behind star stayer Scandinavia. Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, it’s a modern Melbourne Cup winning formula.

Verdict: Has a Northern Hemisphere-winning profile so include him in the exotics.

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18. PARCHMENT PARTY

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: John Velazquez

Weight: 52kg

Barrier: 3

Betting: $51

Comment:US galloper that secured his place in the race by winning the Belmont Gold Cup (2816m) at Saratoga back in June. The track was heavy that day and he thrashed them so if the rain arrives it shouldn’t harm his chances. Since that victory he won again, same track, same distance, this time on firm ground. Impossible to line up his form but winning form is good form.

Verdict: You can’t line him up so include in wider exotics.

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19. ATHABASCAN

Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton

Jockey: Declan Bates

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 1

Betting: $81

Comment:Veteran imported stayer that has always been a rung below the top stayers at Group 1 level. He didn’t fire a shot in the first three runs of the preparation then he went south to Melbourne and improved dramatically in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m). The question is, was that because he was finally fit or the Moonee Valley Gold Cup is junk form? I think the latter. Wet track could enhance his chances.

Verdict: Don’t think he’ll be bothering those at the pointy end.

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20. GOODIE TWO SHOES

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 20

Betting: $41

Comment: She’s a Northern Hemisphere-bred older mare so if she was to win she’d rewrite the record books – but her trainer Joseph O’Brien has won the race twice, so you’d expect he’s got a handle on the type of horse it takes to win our great race. Comes through different form races than are traditionally successful but she has won three of five starts this season, a Group 3 and two Listed races, over 2816 to 3218m. She has won over the hurdles and appears to be racing better than ever. By Fastnet Rock, the sire of Via Sistina.

Verdict: Respect the trainer’s opinion but a win would surprise.

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21. RIVER OF STARS

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 14

Betting: $18

Comment: Imported mare that was a French Group 1 placegetter over 2800m brought to Australia by Yulong, of Via Sistina fame. The autumn was her first Aussie campaign, and she finished third in the Sydney Cup. Didn’t figure in her first two runs of the prep this spring before making sharp improvement when third in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) in her last start. Proven two-miler and has performed on wet tracks. She’s one for consideration.

Verdict: She will stay so include her in trifectas and First4s.

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22. ROYAL SUPREMACY

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 21

Betting: $34

Comment: Had some solid European form last season with placings in good races over 2200 to 2600m. Took a couple of Australian runs to find his feet before delivering during the winter in Sydney and he won two in a row, then placed in the Newcastle Cup (2300m) before winning The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick. In the Caulfield Cup (2400m) he took off early, ran the best 800 to 200m split in the race, and finished fifth. Good on wet and Ciaron Maher’s declared him the stable’s best chance.

Verdict: To win, Robbie will have to ride him better than he did Knight’s Choice last year. Each-way.

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23. TORRANZINO

Trainer: Paul Preusker

Jockey: Celine Gaundrey

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 18

Betting: $34

Comment: As soon as he got to 2400m and beyond this preparation, his form turned around. Didn’t show much in the first three runs of the prep then was out to 2520m in the Bart Cummings and finished a solid second behind Valiant King, before heading to Geelong and winning the Cup over 2400m. Gives the impression he will appreciate the extra distance and he’s effective on wet tracks.

Verdict: Lacks the quality to be featuring in the placings.

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24. VALIANT KING

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 10

Betting: $8

Comment: One of the real chances, according to bookmakers. This is one of Australian racing’s biggest comebacks since Lazarus. This horse came to Australia in the spring of 2023 and finished sixth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). Then he returned at the start of the spring in 2024 and in his next nine starts he only placed once, beaten 3-3/4 lengths that day and beaten almost 70 lengths in the other eight runs. Then come October, blinkers on – bang! He wins the Bart Cummings (2520m) running away and he comes from last, hitting the line better than anything to grab third in the Caulfield Cup. Handles a wet track, he’s hard to ignore.

Verdict: The horse with the Bart Cummings sense of timing. Winning chance.

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CLINTON PAYNE’S MELBOURNE CUP TIPS
1st – MORE FELONS (No. 15)
2nd – VALIANT KING (No. 24)
3rd – HALF YOURS (No. 14)
4th – PRESAGE NOCTURNE (No. 6)

TRIFECTA
1st – 2, 6, 14, 15, 24
2nd – 2, 6, 14, 15, 24
3rd – 2, 6, 7, 10, 14, 15, 17, 21, 22, 24
$100 gets you 62.50 per cent of the dividend

FIRST4
1st – 2, 6, 14, 15, 24
2nd – 2, 6, 14, 15, 24
3rd – 2, 6, 7, 10, 14, 15, 17, 21, 22, 24
4th – 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 15, 17, 21, 22, 24
$100 gets you 6.94 per cent of the dividend

Originally published as Clinton Payne’s 2025 Melbourne Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections