Early grouping of the NFL’s best and worst teams

Free-agent signings and draft picks come together with veteran holdovers — even most of the ones who skipped voluntary OTAs due to a contract dispute or some other obligation — to form the rosters that general managers and coaches envisioned assembling in their minds during the off-season.

There are 22 teams holding mandatory minicamps this week. Players who no-show for physicals or the two practices (totalling 3 ½ hours on the field per day) are subject to fines.

You still won’t see pads or live contact in 11-on-11 drills in minicamp, which means optimism will run high for the possibilities ahead. It’s like the “turn injuries off” function in the Madden video game.

To get into the NFL spirit six weeks before training camps begin, Sports+ divided the 32 teams into six different tiers:

Tier 1: Super Bowl or bust (2)

Chiefs, 49ers

When you have the NFL’s best quarterback, like Patrick Mahomes is for the Chiefs, it’s Super Bowl or bust.

When you have the NFL’s best top-to-bottom roster, like the 49ers do, it’s Super Bowl or bust.

If they both make it, it will be a rematch of last year and their third Super Bowl meeting in six seasons.

Tier 2: Best of the rest (6)

Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Jets, Eagles, Lions

If you are laughing at the Texans or Jets, you are stuck in 2022.

The Jets have eight players who could be First- or Second-Team All-Pros: quarterback Aaron Rodgers, running back Breece Hall, receiver Garrett Wilson, left tackle Tyron Smith, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, cornerback Sauce Gardner and linebackers Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley. Six already have been at one point.

The Lions and — to a lesser extent — Ravens should be sick about not reaching the Super Bowl when the opportunity was right there last season.

The Eagles were last season’s Super Bowl favourites before a late-season collapse. Their roster is improved now, but was keeping head coach Nick Sirianni the right move?

It’s an all-in season for the Bengals before free agency breaks up their offensive nucleus.

Who knows where the ceiling is for the Texans’ C.J. Stroud after the best rookie quarterback season of all time was rewarded with a trade for Stefon Diggs?

Tier 3: Playoffs games are nice, too (9)

Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Packers, Cowboys, Bears, Rams, Falcons

Six of these teams — the Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Packers, Cowboys and Rams — were part of the playoffs last season. Any of the nine could make a deep playoff run if its roster is healthier than an opponent’s in January or if the schematic match-ups break just right.

Anything less than the playoffs will be a disaster for the Bills or Cowboys. A long-awaited return to the postseason should be in the cards for the Bears and Falcons after big off-season splashes.

This group has three quarterbacks who could be free agents next off-season (the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Packers’ Jordan Love) and a couple of the quarterbacks under the most pressure in the NFL (the Browns’ Deshaun Watson and the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins).

The Falcons have the clearest path to a home playoff game because the NFC South remains winnable at 9-8.

Tier 4: Meaningful games in December (6)

Chargers, Steelers, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers, Seahawks

Some owners define a successful season this way. In other words, remaining in the playoff hunt until the very end.

It’s a thin line between the third and fourth tiers — swapping one or two playoff teams is debatable. Maybe the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh or Steelers’ Mike Tomlin — two of the NFL’s five-best head coaches — make the difference in a win or two that slightly alters the landscape.

The theme of this group is high-end stars — whether Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Steelers pass-rusher T.J. Watt, Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. or some other Pro Bowler — on incomplete rosters.

Tier 5: No man’s land (4)

Broncos, Raiders, Cardinals, Saints

One of the worst places to be in the NFL is caught between not being good enough to be a playoff contender and not being bad enough to draft near the top.

Who is in a better situation quarterback-wise: the Cardinals (Kyler Murray) and Saints (Derek Carr) with high-paid veterans who never have won much, or the Broncos (Bo Nix vs. Zach Wilson vs. Jarrett Stidham) and Raiders (Gardner Minshew vs. Aidan O’Connell) with less-than-appealing options for a training-camp competition?

The first head coach fired in 2024 could be from this group — and it probably won’t be power-hungry Super Bowl-winner Sean Payton in Denver.

Tier 6: Fighting for the No. 1 draft pick (5)

Patriots, Titans, Giants, Panthers, Commanders

Arguably the five worst rosters in the league.

All but the Giants have a first-year head coach. All but the Giants and Titans have a first-year, first-time top executive.

All but the Giants have rookie or second-year starting quarterbacks.

Time is ticking on Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen and Daniel Jones.

The Patriots play in the most difficult division of this group and thus have the inside track to the No. 1 pick. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick no more.

-- New York Post