Fox Sports Lab: Parramatta Eels will struggle to fill the holes left by departing forwards

Of the nine who won’t be there, four have left the club, three are injured, one is suspended and the other is among the non-playing reserves.

For a team that reached such heights the year before, it’s rare to see such a high degree of turnover. But it’s the challenge that Parramatta will face this year.

Trying to generate the same output as departing forwards Isaiah Papali’i, Oregon Kaufusi, Marata Niukore and dummy-half Reed Mahoney will be big on coach Brad Arthur’s list.

Rebuilding the pack

Across the past two seasons, Papali’i (129m), Niukore (90m) and Kaufusi (82m) all averaged more than 80 metres a game when on the field.

Papali’i is the biggest loss because of what he was also able to achieve in attack.

He scored 17 tries, made 19 line-breaks and had an astounding 197 tackle-busts in his two-year stint in the blue and gold. Throw in his 69 offloads and 18 line-break assists and he was easily one of the leading edge forwards in the competition.

Yet it can’t be understated the impact Kaufusi and Niukore had, particularly coming off the bench. Despite averaging just 33 minutes, Kaufusi produced 29 post-contact metres a game. Niukore was slightly higher at 35 post-contact metres.

The trio never shirked their defensive work either, making a combined 70 tackles per match on average.

Brad Arthur searched far and wide for his replacements and brought in a quartet of forwards that he hopes will be able to fill some sizeable holes.

Jack Murchie (Warriors), Matt Doorey (Bulldogs), J’maine Hopgood (Panthers) and Jirah Momoisea (Knights) all joined Parramatta this off-season and will be thrown straight into the cauldron against the Storm.

On numbers alone, Hopgood looks likely to be the most promising substitute. He averages 36 minutes for 66 metres a game, a very similar metre/minute ratio to Papali’i.

Murchie (58m) and Doorey (39m) average slightly less despite playing more minutes.

One of the big concerns is how the Eels will be able to balance their rotations. With Papali’i able to play the full 80 minutes when required, it meant they could be more selective with how they used Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard.

The four new additions all average fewer than 60 minutes a game, an area they will have to step up in as the level of competition in the NRL now demands edge forwards who don’t need a break.

There is also the matter of matching Papali’i’s attacking output.

The departing second rower has more than three times the offloads of the new recruits in the past two seasons – combined. And almost six times the number of tackle-busts.

Talking to CODE Sports before the season, Paulo believes that the recruits have all been identified because of their ability to grow within the Parramatta system, just like Papali’i did when he first joined.

“I think it’s just trying to be better every year,” Paulo says.

“With the new guys coming in, you’ve got to set an example and drive the culture that we’ve been building over the past couple of years, and it’s certainly what’s been happening over the pre-season.

“Jack Murchie has been playing over the last couple of years but is slowly becoming a more consistent performer. There’s quite a lot of guys who are just coming through who are just eager to learn.”

The old is new again

Eels fans were devastated by the departure of Reed Mahoney and it’s easy to see why. He has been an integral part of the side they have built over the past four years that got them one win away from a premiership.

He was a regular contributor for Parramatta, averaging 114.8 possessions a match over the past two seasons while making just shy of 41 tackles a game.

Teams who have had success in recent years have had elite hookers, so for Brad Arthur, replacing Mahoney was always going to be a challenge. So, he turned to the experienced Josh Hodgson.

Coming off a second ACL injury, the Englishman has had the best part of 12 months preparing for life as an Eel. But the games he has played of late, particularly in 2021, show he is a different dummy half to Mahoney.

Hodgson only averaged 79.6 possessions a game and will be required to get his hands on the ball more frequently with no utility player on the bench for now.

In his stellar 2019 finals campaign, Hodgson averaged just over 100 possessions a game so Parramatta will be hoping he can recapture that form.

He’s also coming into a tight-knit spine. Mahoney, Mitch Moses, Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson played 24 of 28 games together in 2022, a number unrivalled by any other combination in the NRL.

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But it’s clear Hodgson has put in the work and wants to be a leader his new teammates can depend on.

“He has certainly showcased why he’s such a mature player in the game and he certainly sets a good example for a lot of the younger guys,” Paulo says.

“You can tell the way that he has returned after a year out through injury, the results have shown that he’s definitely putting in the work.”