Fox Sports Lab: Stats you need to know for NRL Round 22, from expert statistician Aaron Wallace

Fox Sports Lab guru AARON WALLACE also uncovers the team for whom this could be their last chance to set up afinals run.

Round 22

Back in the Big Smoke

The Cowboys are right in the hunt for a top four berth after seven wins from nine games since Magic Round, with only Melbourne winning more games in that period.

The Cows have toppled four of the current top five teams in their run, so would be expected to be far too strong for the last placed Tigers, if they can overcome their Leichhardt Oval hoodoo.

North Queensland has won just two of 13 games at the “Eighth Wonder”, the worst record all-time of any team to have played 10 or more games there.

Their last visit was a 48-point, 66-18 thumping in round 12 last season, their biggest loss since 2004 and the equal most points they have ever conceded.

All Sydney venues have at times troubled the Cowboys but this year they have won three from five games so far, including their past two against the Roosters and Panthers.

They have three game or better winning streaks in Sydney just twice in over a decade, but made the Grand Final on both occasions, with four straight wins in 2017 and five in 2015.

On the Wayne?

The Dolphins were equal third after a Magic Round victory over Wests Tigers, but just two wins from eight games since has them on the verge of slipping out of the top eight with seven teams trailing them by two wins or fewer.

Wayne Bennett has not missed the finals in consecutive seasons of coaching since 1988-89 (both five team series) - he has never finished lower than seventh in back-to-back seasons.

The good news for the Dolphins, however, is Bennett’s great record against Roosters coach Trent Robinson.

Bennett is one of just three coaches Robinson has met more than once whom he has a losing record against (Bellamy and Cleary are the other two) and Wayne has won eight of the 11 meetings between the two since 2018.

Hope not Des-erted

Des Hasler has never missed the finals in consecutive coaching seasons and the Titans finals hopes are yet to be completely extinguished in 2024.

Gold Coast have won four of their past five games including their past two matches at Cbus.

They have not won three straight games in the same season there in almost a decade, last doing so in the final three games of 2015.

Brisbane’s finals hopes are also still flickering, but with just one win from their past eight games, including their biggest loss of the season last week, this game would appear to be do or die.

The Broncos have lost their past two against the Titans, including a 36-34 classic in round 12. They have lost both regular season games against their neighbours just once previously, in their wooden spoon 2020 season.

The Curse of the Mundine-oh

Prior to the Dragons first meeting with Storm following the 1999 Grand Final, Anthony Mundine, perhaps in partial jest, declared the Storm didn’t deserve to win the Grand Final - Storm won that match 70-10 and the Dragons have not won in Melbourne since - hence the curse!

Melbourne’s 16 straight wins have been by an average score of 29-12, with just under half of the wins by 20 point or larger margins.

Avoiding big losses has proven an issue for the Dragons in 2024, with their 36-point loss to the Panthers last week the fifth time this season they have lost by a 30 plus margin - equalling the worst ever season for the Dragons in 2000.

Only 18 teams in Premiership history have suffered through six or more 30-point losses in a season.

Good Knight?

Newcastle has just two wins and a draw against the Panthers in 18 games since 2014, their worst and the Panthers best record against any opponent over that period.

The Knights are one of six teams yet to defeat the Panthers since 2020, yet they have come close on a couple of occasions with a golden point draw and a golden point loss.

Losing to Penrith will not definitively end the Knights chances of a fourth finals berth in five seasons, but with the worst attack in the competition and the fourth worst differential time is fast running out for Adam O’Brien’s men.

Perfect 10

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The Bulldogs snapped a 13-game losing streak at Suncorp Stadium last week, with a thumping 41-16 win over the Broncos, and ending another streak this week would keep them well in the hunt for their first top four berth since finishing top of the table in 2012.

Canberra has won nine straight games against the Bulldogs, they have a 10 game streak against any opponent just once in their history; winning 11 against St George between 1987 and 1992. Since 2016 they have won 11 of 12 games, including two from two at Belmore, easily their best record against any opponent.

Losing 10 straight against anyone has proven a rarity in the Bulldogs history, they have done so only twice, with the last coming against the unstoppable St George team between 1954 and 1962.