Fox Sports Lab: Stats you need to know for NRL Round 5, from expert statistician Aaron Wallace

The astonishing extent of Melbourne’s graveyard factor, Wests Tigers’ severe allergy to three-game wins streaks and the Titans’ risk of unprecedented failure. Fox Sports Lab guru AARON WALLACE delivers his most intriguing stats ahead of NRL Round 5.

Melbourne Storm captain Harry Grant takes a run at AAMI Park. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images
Melbourne Storm captain Harry Grant takes a run at AAMI Park. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

NRL Round 5 is here. Whether it’s for your tipping comp or to impress your mates, these are the stats you should know.

Perfect Storm

Melbourne have won a club record 11 straight games at AAMI Park – only six teams in the NRL era have 12-game or better winning streaks at a venue, with the Storm having three of those (15 games twice at Olympic Park and 13 at Suncorp Stadium).

The Broncos’ thumping win in the first week of last year’s finals snapped a 14-game losing streak against Melbourne, but backing up wins has proven all but impossible against the Victorian juggernauts.

Craig Bellamy lost his first three games as a coach against the Broncos in 2003-04 – the last time Melbourne lost consecutive games against them. Not being one to hold a grudge, Bellamy’s Storm team have won almost 85 per cent of their matches since!

Picture: Getty Images
Picture: Getty Images

Chicken run

For a 20-year period between 1992 and 2012, the Roosters could not defeat the Bulldogs away from home, winning just two of 19 games not at Moore Park. Since Trent Robinson took over as coach in 2013, however, their record has improved markedly, with eight wins from 10 away games.

Overall, the Roosters have taken full advantage of the Bulldogs’ lean period, winning nine of 10 since 2017; yet half of those have been decided by a converted try or less, including a 25-24 win last-start in Gosford last season.

House of the Dragon

St George Illawarra has its best record against any current team versus the Knights, thanks in no small part to their incredible record at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Dragons have won 18 of their 23 games in Newcastle since forming the joint venture, the best 20-plus-game record of any team at any venue in the NRL era.

Newcastle were last-start 32-12 winners at Kogarah in the final round of last season.

Picture: Getty Images
Picture: Getty Images

Rabbitohs’ bunnies

Souths got their season off and running with a win over the Bulldogs last weekend and will be hoping their dominant record over the Warriors can continue a belated climb up the ladder.

Since 2013, the Bunnies have won 14 of 15 games against the Wahs, including their past eight meetings; They have just one longer streak against an opponent since the mid 1970s, winning nine against the Knights between 2012 and 2018.

Their eight straight wins have not been close encounters, with six by 20 points or more, and the Rabbitohs scoring more than 25 points on all eight occasions. Only five teams in history have done so in nine or more games … including the Warriors against the Rabbitohs in the early 2000s.

Another week, another Panthers record!

Manly were the early adopters of being dominated by Penrith, having won just three games against them since 2013; their worst, and the Panthers’ best, record over that period.

Until last weekend’s win over the Roosters, Penrith had never won nine straight games against an opponent but they can now do so in consecutive weeks, as they have won their past eight games against the Sea Eagles. Their six wins since Covid have been by an average scoreline of 35-11.

A win would also be their fifth straight at Brookvale, something only two other visiting teams have achieved; Souths in the early 1950s and Storm between 2016 and 2020.

Picture: Getty Images
Picture: Getty Images

Tigers’ tantalising triple treat

Wests Tigers have not won three straight games since early 2018 … every other team (including the Dolphins!) has done so at least once since. From their 11 previous attempts to crack the three-win barrier, their average losing margin has been 14 points.

The Dolphins are also chasing three straight wins in an attempt to maintain their top spot on the ladder. They have won four of their nine games at Suncorp.

Remember the Titans (can’t defend)

It would seem the key for Des Hasler to turn the Titans’ fortunes around is very simple: improve their attack and defence!

The Titans have scored just 18 points in their three games so far this season, one of just four teams to score fewer than 20 points through three games in the NRL era.

Their defensive issues may be deeper seated, however. The Titans have conceded 28 points in each of their past eight games; no team in premiership history have done so in nine straight.

The Cowboys’ perfect start to the season came to a crashing halt at the hands of the Broncos last weekend but playing the Titans at home has historically proven fruitful. The Cowboys have won 12 of their past 14 games against Gold Coast in Townsville, with all of those wins by double-figure margins.

Picture: Getty Images
Picture: Getty Images

Fading again?

The Raiders bombed an 18-point lead against the Sharks last week, highlighting that their second-half woes from last season may not have gone away. Canberra won just six second halves in 2023, while 12 of their 17 second-half losses were by double figures.

Parramatta have the upper hand in recent meetings between these two sides, winning five of the past seven clashes including two rare wins in Canberra. They have won just six of 25 games they have played at GIO Stadium.

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