Only three teams in the NRL emerge as ‘premiership zone’ hopefuls

Forget star players, form and the anomalies of the draw, it all boils down to these two markers to best predict which team can win the premiership each year.

Let’s get mathematical for a second with numbers from Fox Lab.

The ‘zone’ is determined by every premier’s regular season averages for points scored and points conceded, taking the mean of both and adding one standard deviation either side to imply a ‘normal’ value.

In layman’s terms, teams need to be scoring more than 22.6 points and conceding fewer than 18.7 points on average across the season.

With four weeks left to play there’s time for the premiership outliers to get into the zone, but how far do they have to go?

Penrith – In the zone

Conceded: 12.3

Scored: 26.5

It’s no surprise the Panthers are the furthest entrenched in the premiership zone so late in the season. Sitting on top of the ladder and virtually ungettable for their second minor premiership in three years, Ivan Cleary’s men have their attack down pat and defend like champions. It’s little wonder they’re favourites for back-to-back titles given their consistency on either side of the ball.

Home run: Rabbitohs (A), Warriors (H), Cowboys (A)

North Queensland - In the zone

C: 14.9

S: 26

The surprise packet team of the 2022 season, the Cowboys have successfully narrowed the difference between their best and worst games under the strict tutelage of Todd Payten this year. Conceding just 14.9 points per game but scoring well over the attack limit of the zone, the Cowboys are in the premiership sweet spot.

Home run: Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers (H)

Cronulla – Outside the zone

C: 16.5

S: 22.2

Traditionally, the Sharks have always played a tough and gritty style of football and under rookie coach Craig Fitzgibbon their defensive resilience has returned. To be sitting right in the premiership zone, though, they need to be scoring more points. Their last four games are against bottom of the table teams and it’s extremely likely they’ll be within range come the end of the season with some statement performances.

Home run: Wests Tigers (A), Sea Eagles (A), Bulldogs (H), Knights (A)

Melbourne - In the zone

C: 17.0

S: 27.1

They’ve battled a horrendous injury toll this season but it’s yet another sign of Craig Bellamy’s brilliance that the Storm are still within reach of the title in 2022. Not even four-straight losses – including a 36-30 loss to Manly and a 28-6 loss to Cronulla – dented their fearsome defensive consistency to meet the premiership threshold.

Home run: Broncos (A), Roosters (H), Eels (A)

Parramatta - Outside the zone

C: 21.9

S: 24.6

The Eels are a smokey for the title being the only side to have beaten Penrith this year, and doing so twice. But their form is too topsy turvey and it shows in their numbers, conceding 21.9 points per game, three more than is needed to get into the title hot zone. They can make it up over the next month, though, but will need to be at their very best defensively with a tricky run to the finals.

Home run: Rabbitohs (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Storm (H)

South Sydney - Outside the zone

C: 20.6

S: 26

The Rabbitohs struggled early on without superstar Latrell Mitchell at the back, and while points are not hard to come by for Jason Demetriou’s men, defensively they are still too loose to win the premiership – statistically and historically speaking of course. They’re coming into a patch of form to finish off the year though and will need to be at their best defensively against two top four sides, plus attacking threats Eels and Roosters to get that number down.

Home run: Eels (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (H), Roosters (A)

Brisbane - Outside the zone

C: 20.3

S: 22.8

The Broncos are scoring just enough points at the moment to be within the zone on one hand, but they have leaked far too many points to be in contention just yet. Losses to Wests Tigers and the Roosters in the past two weeks have done their defensive score some damage. The last month of football will be crucial for their chances to show they’re worthy of the premiership zone.

Home run: Knights (H), Storm (H), Eels (H), Dragons (A)

Sydney Roosters - Outside the zone

C: 19

S: 24.4

Amazingly, the eighth-placed Roosters are sitting just outside the premiership zone based on the points they’ve conceded this year. It’s been a rocky road for Trent Robinson’s men, but they are firing at the right time of the season – as he typically prepares them to do. Provided there are no more blowouts and they keep it to three or less converted tries conceded per game over the next month they could sneak into mathematical title calculations.

Home run: Cowboys (H), Wests Tigers (H), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)

Canberra - Outside the zone

C: 20.1

S: 18.4

It’s not a good sign when a team is conceding more points than they score, but unfortunately for the Raiders that’s exactly how their season has panned out. Big losses early in the season when they were coping with injuries have hurt their chances, and they need to win all four of their last games to have a chance to even make finals, let alone be in the premiership zone.

Home run: Dragons (H), Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Wests Tigers (A)

Manly - Outside the zone

C: 22.1

S: 21.7

The Sea Eagles haven’t been able to string together a meaningful run of form so far this year and sit too far outside of the premiership parameters to have a chance to win it. At their best they could win all four games to finish off the season but are still an unlikely chance to make finals, which means nothing even if they reduce their defensive average drastically.

Home run: Titans (A), Sharks (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (A)

St George Illawarra - Outside the zone

C: 24.3

S: 17.8

The Dragons are technically a chance to make the finals over the last four weeks of the season with winnable games to see out the year. However, they have conceded a converted try more per game all year than they would need to, and have not scored nearly enough points to trouble the good teams in attack.

Home run: Raiders (A), Titans (H), Wests Tigers (A), Broncos (H)