State of Origin 2022: The outcast 22, from NSW and QLD near-misses to vanished stars

Here are the biggest selection casualties for Origin I – the 22-man squad you don’t want to be in, ranging from genuine near-misses, to guys who were forgotten but perhaps shouldn’t have been, then some who have dropped off the face of the earth.

NSW

Josh Addo-Carr: The Foxx went from mighty Melbourne to crumbling Canterbury and has paid the price. Blues coach Brad Fittler has always been loath to select players from struggling clubs and even his trusted speedster wasn’t spared under that rule, with Addo-Carr’s form dipping in a poor Bulldogs team.

Addo-Carr has scored 10 tries from 12 games for NSW and been involved in three series wins under Fittler, yet was partly left out this time due to his shorter stature; with Brian To’o demanding one wing spot as Queensland prepare to unleash towering flyers Xavier Coates and Selwyn Cobbo. Even if Addo-Carr regains form, he won’t get taller, while Coates and Cobbo seem long-term players for the Maroons.

While the Foxx’s omission was a shock, the stats back Fittler. To’o is averaging 163 run metres per game this season, the recalled Daniel Tupou 156m, while Addo-Carr is well back on 116m.

Angus Crichton: This isn’t the first time Fittler has dropped Crichton, whose form has been middling for the Roosters. Like Addo-Carr, he has gone from playing in Origin III for NSW last year to missing an extended squad.

There are six back-rowers ahead of Crichton in the squad and he would not necessarily be the next man in; though with an average of 102 run metres per game this season, he is ahead of squad edge forwards Tyson Frizell, Liam Martin and Tariq Sims. Crichton is off-contract with the Roosters and his future beyond this season is unclear; though at 26, with nine Origin games under his belt, there should be plenty of good football ahead of him.

Jake Trbojevic: Fittler is a big fan of ‘Jurbo’, who is a blue-chip character apart from being a top forward. Yet the Manly star was deemed surplus to requirements after starting in the front-row for Origin I last year.

Trbojevic is somewhere between the current prototypes for a middle forward; either genuine big bopper, or smaller/hyper-mobile. Isaah Yeo appears to have the Blues No.13 jersey under lock and key for now, and Trbojevic doesn’t have the versatility to cover both middle and edge, at least relative to other NSW options. Has played 13 Origins and at 28, still has time for more, though has clearly dropped behind rivals.

Daniel Saifiti: The Knights prop was a surprising pick from Fittler back in 2019 but has since earned his stripes in two series wins. He is battling with a knee injury but his form this season has been underwhelming. Saifiti has not only dropped from warranting a NSW starting spot but effectively been replaced in the squad by twin brother Jacob; who has clearly impressed Fittler more while playing in the same disappointing Newcastle team.

At 26, Saifiti isn’t a write-off, but he is a traditional no-frills front-rower who will need to be at his destructive best to warrant a recall, with NSW boasting freakish props Payne Haas and Junior Paulo in their starting side. He is running for just 90m per game this season.

David Klemmer: The former Blues prop, who played the last of his 14 Origins in 2019 under Fittler, has become an outcast under ‘Freddy’. NSW have mostly opted for mobile big men with some ball-playing chops, limiting opportunities for traditional big boppers, while there have been whispers about Klemmer’s attitude when in Blues camp.

However, the Knights prop is in powerful form this season. Running an average 139m per game, he trails only Payne Haas and Addin Fonua-Blake among NRL front-rowers. It is telling that he didn’t rate a mention as a notable omission and was apparently the third-choice prop from his own club side, behind the Saifiti twins. Theoretically, Klemmer might have been in the mix for the third front-rower role, handed (deservedly) to Parramatta’s Reagan Campbell-Gillard.

Jordan McLean: Having been good enough to play for Australia in 2017-18, McLean went through a serious downturn over the past two seasons in North Queensland. He has returned to decent form this season, running for 103m per game.

While plenty of his Cowboys teammates were rewarded with Origin selection for Queensland thanks to the club’s brilliant resurgence, McLean hasn’t rated a mention for NSW; which isn’t necessarily unfair but shows how far his stocks have plummeted since his heyday.

Moses Leota: The Panthers prop has been right in the mix for NSW the past two seasons but dropped off the radar thanks to an early-season shoulder injury. He has played just five games in 2022.

If there was ever a time for him to get a crack, it would be now, with six Penrith teammates in the Blues squad. Leota is averaging 106 run metres per game for the Panthers this season and would need a dramatic form spike to make selection waves mid-series.

Dale Finucane: The Sharks recruit was not an omission, as such; he is battling both concussion and knee problems. But at age 30, with major punishment inflicted on his body and NSW’s forward stocks in rude health, it may be a long way back if the Blues are victorious in his absence.

Having debuted under Fittler in 2019, Finucane has played five games without being a must-pick; he has never been selected for a series opener. He is enormously hardworking and a AAA+ character, but plays only in the middle, without the footwork and ball-playing ability of other Blues options.

Keaon Koloamatangi: The South Sydney tyro earned a call-up to NSW’s extended squad last year but as his form has cooled for the Rabbitohs, so has Fittler’s enthusiasm. South Sydney are an unconvincing 6-6 and the 24-year-old perhaps hasn’t been able to lift his name about the Bunnies’ general vibe of decline.

Koloamatangi’s raw numbers this season are decent enough, with his 109 running metres per game ranking him fifth among NRL edge back-rowers; ahead of all but Ryan Matterson from the edge forwards picked by NSW. He is clocking 76 minutes per game on average and missing just one tackle.

Campbell Graham: Ditto for the Rabbitohs’ concerns but otherwise, Graham is again delivering the kind of season that prompted Fittler to previously bring him in as a squad player. Nonetheless, he couldn’t crack the NSW 22 despite Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic both being out injured.

Graham is running for 129m per game this season, third in the NRL among centres, and at 197cm tall, fits the bill for greater height on the edge of the field. At just 22, he still has plenty of time, though is head-to-head with Kotoni Staggs as a specialist right centre.

Siosifa Talakai: Having rocketed into Origin contention with one internet-breaking half of football against Manly, the Cronulla centre has returned to earth and the selection hype came to nothing; this time at least.

Talakai, 25, is a powerful ballrunner who leads the NRL for average run metres per game (150) in his position this season, yet couldn’t push Jack Wighton and Stephen Crichton out of Fittler’s thinking for the left centre spot made vacant by an injured Latrell Mitchell. At 100kg, he may be a chance in future, given he could pinch-hit in the forwards.

Matt Burton: Fittler is a massive fan of Burton, who won a premiership in the Penrith centres last season before joining the Bulldogs as a five-eighth. Given Canterbury’s ongoing miserable fortunes, Fittler probably figured that the young star had enough on his plate.

Burton has shown glimpses of his talent this season but has found it hard to fire many shots in a team that has won just two games. Still just 22, he’s an Origin-calibre talent who will break through eventually.

Clint Gutherson: The Eels captain played all three games of the disastrous 2020 series, when a highly-fancied NSW team was rolled by an understrength Queensland outfit. His club form has rarely dipped since but he barely rated a mention as a Blues omission this season, fairly enough.

Gutherson looks to have slipped behind multiple players, Jack Wighton and Nicho Hynes among them, while NSW captain James Tedesco is of course immovable at No.1. The Eels are running fifth in the NRL under King Gutho’s watch but he hasn’t shot the lights out for try assists (five in 12 games), having become one of the elite for that stat category.

Queensland

Corey Oates: The Broncos winger has played eight Origin games for Queensland but looks on the outer for another nod, having been leapfrogged by Brisbane teammate Selwyn Cobbo. Oates is the NRL’s leading winger for run metres per game this season (164), well ahead of Cobbo (121) but without the irresistible, youthful brilliance.

Oates is still just 27 but given he’s in such brilliant form and still couldn’t get a recall, he may struggle to get a look-in for the Maroons again with so many young options available.

David Fifita: A $1 million per season contract adds a massive burden of expectation and that has proven the case with Fifita. His raw numbers have been OK since moving to the Titans, clocking 108 run metres per game, but that just goes to show that stats aren’t everything.

Fifita has scored three tries from nine games this season, having notched 17 from 22 last season for Brisbane. Regardless of injury, he has been well-below his best and it was telling that his omission from the Maroons squad was not a shock, despite his standing in the game. At just 22, his absence should prove a rare blip.

AJ Brimson: The Titans ace played all three games of the miraculous 2020 Queensland series victory but hasn’t been back to Origin since. He was never a major chance this season thanks to Gold Coast’s dire plunge in form.

Brimson covers a number of bases for Queensland, yet Ben Hunt has the bench utility duties sewn up for now and he is yet to stake a serious claim for a specialist role. Kalyn Ponga and Cameron Munster are enormous roadblocks in his two best positions.

Moeaki Fotuaika: The Gold Coast prop, 22, can perhaps consider himself hard done by. He has played four games in the Queensland jersey and handled himself well.

The stench of failure at club level is tough to wash off, without a long track record of success in Origin, so Fotuaika wasn’t done any favours by the Titans’ downturn. He is running for 113m per game this season, just one metre less than Maroons mainstay Josh Papalii.

Beau Fermor: The Titans back-rower looks a classic low-key Queensland Origin prospect; unheralded outside of his home state, gritty, no-nonsense, reliable. Maroons great Corey Parker had him as a squad smoky.

It wasn’t to be and he was likely another casualty of Gold Coast’s unhappy start to the season. He isn’t a stats monster, running for 93m per game on average this season, but does his job consistently.

Reed Mahoney: The Parramatta hooker looked extremely close to an Origin debut last season, even earning the stamp of approval from Cameron Smith, before a shoulder injury cruelled his hopes. The window may already have slammed shut, given the presence of exceptional No.9 Harry Grant.

Mahoney’s slim hopes were likely not helped by his output from dummy-half this season; he is running for just 29 metres per game, way behind Grant (78m) and NSW rake Damien Cook (67m), while he has three try assists to Grant’s 10. The 24-year-old will also go from a strong Parramatta team to a struggling Canterbury side next season.

Jaydn Su’A: The damaging back-rower has been in decent form for a middling Dragons team but at this stage, won’t add to his four Queensland appearances. He was part of Queensland’s fairytale 2020 team.

Su’A is fourth in the NRL this season for running metres per game among edge back-rowers (110), so has done little to harm his chances. St George Illawarra are currently running ninth, while the Broncos and Cowboys surge upwards, which can’t have helped.

Reece Walsh: The Warriors fullback would have made a historic Origin debut for Queensland at just 18 last season, if not for a hamstring injury. He has shown flashes of genius since moving from the Broncos and surely his time will come.

It wasn’t to be this season, though it would have only been a squad position anyway. Yet Walsh is running for more metres per game (120) than first-choice Maroons fullback Kalyn Ponga (114) and also boasts more try assists (7-5).

Coen Hess: It once seemed that the gigantic Dolph Lundgren lookalike would be causing headaches for NSW for the next decade, yet his last Maroons appearance was Origin I in 2020. Hess has played six Origins in total and it is unclear when he may add to the tally, if ever.

Hess has been part of the exciting North Queensland upswing yet has been overshadowed by exciting young teammates like Jeremiah Nanai, Reuben Cotter, Tom Gilbert and Heilum Luki. He is running for just 64m per game and hasn’t scored in 10 games this season, having made his name early in his career by bursting across the line. Still just 25 years old but may well be done at this level.

Honourable mentions: Cody Walker, Mitchell Moses, Luke Keary, Francis Molo, Kyle Feldt.