CODE Sports exclusive analysis: The draft strategy that will make or break your SuperCoach NRL season

Winning your SuperCoach NRL Draft doesn’t happen by chance. While finding late-round gems is crucial, locking in the perfect first two picks sets up your season for success. Here’s your ultimate guide.

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Good Draft players know there’s two things in common when you walk away feeling like you’ve won your draft.

The first part is finding value later in your Draft that others have missed.

The second part is having nailed your top two picks to build the team structure you want.

And while the first part is almost universal in all Draft formats, in SuperCoach NRL there’s a lot of nuance to consider when it comes to your team structure – but don’t worry, we are here to help.

We’re already spoken to some of the different strategies you can use to get an edge in your comp.

We have also ranked the Top 12 players at each position for you as well.

And in this article we will highlight some of the first two picks you could expect to grab in your draft depending on the different league size you’re running.

And of course we haven’t forgotten about the Flex either – because activating that in itself is a game changer.

Before we dive in let’s take a quick study of how positional depth is shaping up this season.

Harry Grant. Picture: Getty
Harry Grant. Picture: Getty

HOOKER (HOK)

– Only one player, Harry Grant, ranked in the Top 30 overall

11 players projected to average over 55

– With a lack of star players but good depth, hooker is an ideal position to leave until later in your Draft

FRONT-ROW FORWARD (FRF)

– Two players in the Top 30 in Addin Fonua-Blake and Payne Haas

Eight players projected to average over 55 and 13 over 50

– Similar to hooker, there’s few stars but lots of solid options at FRF. This is another spot which can be left until later in your Draft

SECOND ROW FORWARD (2RF)

– No players in the Top 10, but nine players in the Top 40

– Potentially 10 players who could average over 70

– There’s a rock solid Top 12 at the position before depth begins to get tested

– This is a position to aim to grab a gun player or two in your first four selections

Nathan Cleary. Picture: Getty
Nathan Cleary. Picture: Getty

HALFBACK (HFB)

– Three players in the Top 10 in Nathan Cleary, Jahrome Hughes and Nicho Hynes

– Only six players within the Top 50 overall, showcasing the gulf in talent at the position between the best and the rest.

– With high upside, this is a position to prioritise for a point of difference in your league – if you land a big three player you’ll have a natural advantage but be wary of reaching too high for the other HFB as the drop off is real.

FIVE-EIGHTH (5/8)

– None in the Top 10, three in the Top 30

– Up to 16 guys who could achieve a 55 average this season

– Traditionally a high ceiling position, five-eighth is now less dominant compared to HFB or FLB. The strong depth means if you miss a Top 3 guy, you can pick up a solid player later in the draft without much concern

CENTRE/WING (CTW)

– Six in the top 30, and 10 in the Top 50

Scoring has trended strongly towards CTWs in the last couple of seasons, with volatility in scoring no longer the norm with coaches asking for higher work rates from their back five

An extremely high ceiling spot which can win you a draft comp if your player fires in finals

At least 30 players could average 55-plus, showcasing the wonderful depth at the position.

Grabbing one early is smart. Filling out your CTW spots later on with depth picks is even smarter.

FULLBACK (FLB)

– Six in the Top 10, eleven in the Top 50

– Up to 12 players who could average over 70

Great positional depth in the Top 12, but a drop in quality afterwards

A position worth going early on in order to try ensure you have a Ferrari in the garage

What combos should you target in your first two picks?

Positional depth plays a huge role in your strategy for your first two picks.

And when you consider your league size, it can also greatly impact the positions you will target.

In terms of the basics, if a position has great depth then drafting these later on is a solid strategy.

Conversely, if there’s a lack of depth and only a few guns available – like halfback – then prioritising this position in Round 1 could give you an advantage.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that teams are 17-man with 13 starters and a four-man bench.

8-Player League

In an eight-man league each team should be absolutely loaded with guns.

Most positions have enough depth to provide you with a strong option in your side, and when you consider the eighth best fullback is going to be Dylan Edwards, Ryan Papenhuyzen or Keano Kini you start to get a picture as to what your side could look like.

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Given the positional depth at fullback, I would prioritise grabbing one of the three gun halfbacks (Cleary, Hynes, Hughes) or two gun CTWs (Garrick, Lomax) in the first round.

In the second I would be prioritising a top 2RF (Fifita, Crichton, Yeo, Katoa) or a CTW.

If your league only has one fullback slot, you don’t need to prioritise one early as you can still find great talent later in the draft.

The scarcity of great halfbacks makes them a bigger priority.

10-Player League

Depth begins to get tested in a 10-man league where some players will need to sacrifice a position in order to try to find quality across the board.

In HOK and FRF as above for example, we’ve called out the poor depth so you either go early or very late in these slots.

The same principle about halfback scarcity can be applied in a league of this size.

The difference comes later in the second round where we will see the 20th best player need to be taken in the second round as opposed to the 16th.

In a 10-man league, you can throw the best five-eighths in Dylan Brown, Cameron Munster and Jayden Campbell into the mix with the premium halfbacks.

And the best two starting picks are likely going to involve selecting your fullback and a half.

If you’re the number 1 pick, you’ll select at pick 1 and 20.

If you are able to land the best fullback – Tom Trbojevic – and pair him with a Top 3 five-eighth – assuming the top halfbacks are gone – you’re off to a great start.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Picture: NRL Photos
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Picture: NRL Photos

Similarly if you’re middle of the order, you could opt for a second-round fullback like Edwards, Papenhuyzen or even Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to pair up with your halfback from the first round.

In these examples you’re capturing both gun talent at a shallow position in the halves while also nailing your fullback before it gets too late.

12-Player League

We are getting serious now. Two extra competitors in the league makes a big difference to your strategy.

In a league this size or bigger, we are really talking about an arms race for talent where the principles become vastly different.

Yes, we still need to acknowledge the scarcity of quality halfbacks.

But that is just one factor when it comes to pulling together your predraft board and the rankings of your picks.

The major factor in a 12-man league is taking the best available talent.

No one team in your league should be able to get the best players at more than three positions. If that happens for you, well done you should easily make it to finals.

The Top 12 ranked players include three halfbacks, eight fullbacks and one CTW.

The rankings from positions 13 – 24 aka your second round include two five-eighths, four 2RFS, one HFB, three CTWs and just one hooker and fullback.

If you do the math, 75 per cent of the league should have their fullback selected in the top 24 picks.

The other mix of picks should see one-third of teams have their halfback, 2RF or CTW and just two five-eighths selected. Only one coach should own a hooker after Round 2.

Drafting in a 12-man league emphasises the importance of getting your predraft rankings organised. Provided you are taking the best talent available to you from the board in the first two rounds you are setting yourself up for success.

The major thing to avoid is getting caught ‘chasing’ players above where they’re valued.

Mitch Moses. Picture: NRL Photos
Mitch Moses. Picture: NRL Photos

For example, if there are four halfbacks off the board before your pick in Round 2 and Mitch Moses is the next best available player in that position, taking him early would be a mistake.

With a projected season average of just 60-65, there will be better players at five-eighth, CTW and 2RF on the board available who could average 70-plus.

Take the best talent first, then sort out your structure based on what you land.

Summary

Knowing the positional depth charts and organising your pre-Draft board will give you an edge in your league no matter the size of it.

Understanding the different strategies and potential patterns in your first two picks will help set you up to win your draft.