Rugby World Cup burning questions tackled by The Times’ Stephen Jones and Stuart Barnes

We asked our “star players” at The Times to tackle the big issues that could determine who lifts the Webb Ellis Cup next October …

Marcus Smith or Owen Farrell at No.10 for England?

Stephen Jones: Marcus is often a treat to watch for Harlequins, even if he can be erratic. But I just cannot see this type of player having the ability to influence the latter stages of a World Cup. Twickenham appears to have something of a downer on Farrell as a fly half but for Saracens – who have better backs than England and are better coached – he runs the attack beautifully. Providing Manu Tuilagi is fit, then it’s Farrell 10 and Tuilagi 12. Easy.

Stuart Barnes: If we have seen the best of Marcus Smith, it’s the question. If Smith has more to offer, then there isn’t a question to answer. Farrell can guide England to glory when everything is going to plan but when the theory fails Farrell has a history of losing his cool. With panic at No.10 comes inevitable failure. England won’t breeze through a quarter, semi and final.

Ireland couldn’t win the World Cup, could they?

SJ: They were almost better than sensational in dumping New Zealand in the summer, yet their performances in past World Cups have been far from sensational. If Johnny Sexton stays fit, then they have a chance. It might prove that New Zealand 2022 was their peak, but they have never played anything like that before.

SB: Ireland could. One year out, they are the second-best team in the world, behind France. Andy Farrell has complete control and the side are still improving, not regressing like four years ago. So yes they could, but can they handle a huge pack? South Africa, France and even England can worry them on to the back foot, which is not where Ireland want to be. And then there is Sexton. He’s getting on …

Is Beauden Barrett shot to pieces now, like this New Zealand side?

SJ: Frankly, I’ve never put Barrett in the pantheon, simply because with the authority of the team around him and a supply of quick ball, Billy Bunter could have played well at fly half for New Zealand. I don’t see him as a major threat, but it is impossible to believe that the All Blacks will not restore themselves in some way. Favourites they are absolutely not, however.

SB: A bit of respect for Beaudie please! He has been the most exciting talent on the planet for years but right now he’s nowhere near the complete No 10. He struggles to play the percentages. Richie Mo’unga isn’t the answer, either. He has the skills but not the controlling element. New Zealand won’t win the World Cup.

Would it be bad for rugby if South Africa retain the trophy?

SJ: A good question. They are big and brutal and they hoof it a lot – though anyone with Lukhanyo Am in midfield surely has other options. It is bad news for the game if anyone retains: our sport’s biggest prize needs a succession of different winners.

SB: It’s up to the other nations to prove that the Springboks’ power plays aren’t the optimal way to win matches. If another World Cup goes by with kicking the key strategy, it will be terrible for the sport. The event needs to display rugby in a better light than we witnessed when South Africa beat the British & Irish Lions.

What could stop France bringing the Cup back to the north at last?

SJ: They are incredibly talented at all points, though they can lack consistency. And they messed up horribly when last they hosted in 2007. Part of you is desperate for them to win, another part cannot quite envisage it happening. And another part hopes you are dead wrong.

SB: The obvious answer is that between now and the World Cup France could lose a lot of stars to injury. The retort is that their strength in depth has never been greater. The next explanation for failure is a nervous meltdown. We love to contrast the flighty French with our mental toughness but the way France won the Six Nations grand slam against England this year reminds me that they have Shaun Edwards on their side.

Any chance at all for a new semi-finalist from outside the Old Guard?

SJ: None. Despite some effort and a lot of sound and fury, we still have the same number of genuine contenders for this tournament as we had at the start in 1987 and that is a disgrace, and an indictment of the grasping Old Guard. Fiji will be playing with all our hopes, but rugby’s global expansion at the elite end is still snail-slow.

SB: Ireland are the obvious semi-final “new boys” but don’t write off Japan. The big guns are not quite as big as usual. Japan will have to get past England or Argentina but in a one-off quarter-final I would be in no hurry to dismiss a rugby nation that is on an upward World Cup curve.

Players you will be following most closely over the next 12 months?

SJ: Tuilagi, Gael Fickou, Ardie Savea, Am and Leon Brown are all formidable on their day and vital to their country’s chances, but there is another man who could have an even bigger impact on the game: Steve Thompson.

SB: Keep an eye on the French scene. La Rochelle’s Will Skelton could yet transform Australia, while Matthieu Jalibert’s rivalry with Romain Ntamack could give France the perfect partner for Antoine Dupont. Henry Arundell’s development fascinates from an English perspective, while Ireland’s Tadhg Beirne is a game-changing “back-five” forward.

– The Sunday Times