Champion Data analyses the key numbers behind Brisbane’s recent finals form ahead of 2023 finals series

But it isn’t something that any of the above would be proud of.

All four were very good sides that had sustained eras at the top end of the ladder. Yet for all the nice memories and home and away season wins they stacked up, they could never convert them into a Grand Final appearance – let alone a premiership.

As we embark on the 2023 finals series, Fagan’s Lions have a chance to remove themselves from that unwanted list, but there is a foreboding sense of now or never.

Champion Data has analysed both the current and historical context for the Lions as they aim to frank the Fagan era.

A wasted era?

The awkward reality for the Brisbane Lions is that it’s incredibly rare that a team has a five-year period of consistent home-and-away excellence without reaching a Grand Final.

From 2019, the Lions have won 72.64 per cent of their regular season games.

Only other side in VFL/AFL history has done better without getting to the season decider.

And, that was almost a century ago when the Carlton team from 1927-1931 had a 73.33 per cent winning rate.

This is where the pressure starts for Brisbane.

There’s only so long you can sustain winning before the AFL system catches up with you and you have to capitalise while the sun shines.

The Lions haven’t done that so far and failure this September may mean an era has been wasted.

Carlton fans of the 1920s and 30s knew this too well.

After that initial run they reached a Grand Final in 1932, lost by nine points and then spent the next five seasons winning 68.89 per cent of games also without a Grand Final appearance.

That ranked them first and fourth on a list you’d rather avoid.

Finals downfalls

When the Lions first rocketed into finals contention in 2019 their straight-sets exit with two losses at the Gabba could be excused for inexperience and letting the moment overwhelm them.

Both finals could have turned on goalkicking alone, Richmond kicked 18.4 to Birsbane’s 8.17 in the Qualifying Final, before they lost a heartbreaking loss to GWS by three points.

But since then, Brisbane’s finals have followed a worrying pattern.

In their last seven finals they have lost the contested possession count six times and the inside-50 count six times.

When you look at their measures in home and away seasons over the five year period, the Lions average a very healthy fourth.

So it’s not that they don’t play a finals type game during the regular season, it’s just that they have terrible trouble executing it against the best in the games that matter.

When it comes to individual output over the past four years, Lions players have generally not elevated their games during finals.

The one notable exception has been Lachie Neale who elevates by +2.1 AFL player ratings points per game points in September.

Of those to have played four finals, he’s the only player that lifts by at least 1 player rating point in the postseason. Conversely, there’s 10 Lions who drop by more than one player ratings point.

The 2023 model

This season’s Brisbane games have been a lot like Lions matches of the past four years.

While other teams tinker, the Lions are largely doing the same thing.

The only noticeable changes, and they are not huge in the broader context of their profile, are that they are defending and creating transitions slightly better than they’ve done before.

On the downside, they have dropped away in scoring from stoppage.

None of these changes are remarkable.

If you’re a subscriber to the belief that doing the same thing over and over will get you the same result, you’d be a bit worried about the Lions this September.

If you’re of the mind that being consistently very, very good will eventually get its rewards you’d be more optimistic.

Individual player output has generally been comparable this year, except that the players that have improved their ratings points this season have some unique attributes.

Josh Dunkley is an addition to the squad this year, but the other players who lifted by more than 1 ratings point per game are all talls; ruck Oscar McInerney (+1.56), key defender Harris Andrews (+1.74) and key forwards Joe Daniher (+2.07) and Eric Hipwood (+1.16).

This could be a more physically imposing Lions outfit if their big players keep dominating, an area that finals versions of the team has lacked.

The big wildcard in the equation is Joe Daniher.

So often a source of frustration, he is the most-improved player at the Lions this year on AFL ratings.

However, he is the number one offender when it comes to reduced output in finals, his player ratings figures have dropped from 10.3 in the home and away season to 6.9 in finals over the era. It’s a similar trend for Andrews, McInerney and Hipwood; with their ratings dipping in finals.

If Daniher and the talls translate their 2023 improvement to a September turnaround too, it could be the difference.

Home, Sweet Home

But of all the factors that point to this being Brisbane’s time to finally make it to the MCG on the last Saturday in September, it’s the home ground factor.

The Lions have won 50 of their past 58 games at the Gabba. Since the turn of the century it is only comparable to two Geelong runs (2003-2011 and 2015-2022), Port Adelaide from 2000 to 2004 and the all-conquering Lions of 2000-2004.

They don’t need reminding that those Lions won three premierships and the other eras all won at least one premiership too.

Again the current-day Lions are the only team without a crown

The pandemic of 2020 which caused finals and the Grand Final played in Brisbane was the great gift that went unconverted when the Lions stumbled in a home Preliminary Final.

This year the Lions have earned a home qualifying final by virtue of their second place finish that most tipsters believe will result in a home Preliminary final too.

If 2020 was the missed opportunity, 2023 could be the golden second chance to crown a very good era.

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It could also be the last chance.

Is that a burden? Or is it an opportunity?

Only those within the Lions’ inner sanctum will know how the players are treating it. If they get it right they‘ll get that Grand Final berth, and perhaps a premiership.