Analysis: Brutal toll puts ruthless comeback artist Rafael Nadal at the precipice

On Thursday, Rafael Nadal announced his withdrawal from the French Open, the major tournament he’s won an outlandish 14 times, citing his slow recovery from a hip injury that has kept him out of competition since January.

That wasn’t a shock—but there was more. A philosophical-sounding Nadal said he would put down his racquet indefinitely—maybe for a month, maybe four months, he wasn’t sure—as he tries to rehabilitate his body and passion for the sport.

“I need to stop,” he said. “I need to stop for a while.”

Nadal, who turns 37 on June 3, didn’t make a prediction on his return date—he didn’t definitively cross off Wimbledon, though that event clearly is in jeopardy.

He mostly sounded targeted on a farewell season in 2024.

“My idea and my motivation is to try to enjoy and say goodbye to all of the tournaments that have been important to me,” he said. He mentioned his interest in competing in the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, where the tennis competition will be held at Roland Garros.

He will try to get there. There is no guarantee. A second member of the Big Three is preparing to say goodbye.

Roger is gone, of course. Federer hung them up last September, at his Laver Cup tournament in London, after his own struggle to return from injury. His body was no longer up to the grind, so he said farewell among friends, his final event a doubles match with Nadal at his side.

A teary Nadal may have been the most emotional person in the arena that night. The Spaniard had marked his tennis ascension through epic battles with Federer, and over time, the rivalry had blossomed into friendship.

They played comically different styles—Federer the ballet dancer; Rafa the brutalist—but they shared a gentlemen’s agreement on sportsmanship and grace. Lately, they have bonded over family; Nadal and his wife Xisca welcomed their first child in October.

There won’t be another duo like Roger and Rafa, and Nadal knew it. “When Roger leaves … an important part of my life is leaving, too,” Nadal said amid the Federer goodbye.

Eight months later, it is Nadal at the precipice. He roared into his mid-30s with a string of triumphs, and last year, he again took the Australian and the French, becoming the first man to win 22 major tournaments. Until a torn abdominal muscle forced him to withdraw before a Wimbledon semi-final, he was on pace for a calendar Grand Slam.

He looked great—not the full, ferocious Nadal, but formidable enough to beat anyone in five. And then, suddenly, he was gone. Again.

This has long been the Nadal arc: spectacular victories followed by injury heartbreaks, some of them no doubt caused by his on-court physicality.

Nobody’s ever played tennis like Rafael Nadal. Few expected his body to make it this far.

In his press conference he confided he’d been physically miserable for much of the past couple of years, that the injuries had made it difficult to even enjoy his major victories.

So he will stop.

“I really believe it’s the right thing to do for my body and my personal happiness,” he said.

There are some in tennis who wish Nadal had called it a career a year ago, holding that 14th trophy at Roland Garros. The symmetry would have been lovely, finishing where it had all started.

But Nadal didn’t rise from Mallorca to legend status by stepping away when it seemed over. Throughout his career, he has been a ruthless comeback artist who’s never submitted, no matter how stacked the odds.

So here we are, Roger done, Rafa in limbo, and Novak Djokovic (22 majors now himself) the only one of the Three still going. Djokovic remains a force, and is the reigning Australian and Wimbledon champ. But he is vulnerable to bad days, like on Wednesday, when he dropped an Italian Open quarterfinal to Holger Rune.

Along with the phenom Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic will be a favourite at the Nadal-less French, but his level on clay is hard to predict. He will get a chance to reclaim his title at the 2023 U.S. Open, now that the country’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate for travellers has ended.

As for Nadal, I’d wondered if he could become a late-career clay-court specialist, sort of in the way the crafty Fred Couples remained a threat at the Masters well into his 50s. Clay is a surface that rewards patience and skill much more than power. What if he limited himself strictly to the clay season, ramping up to Roland Garros?

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Body broken, courage soaring: Nadal a warrior to the end

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He basically ruled that out Thursday. No surprise. Nadal’s approach is all in, or nothing.

For now, we wait—on a Rafael Nadal farewell tour, or another quiet ending in the Big Three.

— Wall Street Journal