Fox Sports Lab: Why the Brisbane Broncos are booming again, from Reynolds to Carrigan and Cobbo

The Broncos have delivered a remarkable turnaround in fortunes this season, lifting the NRL’s biggest club from the mire and edging coach Kevin Walters away from the chopping block.

So how have they done it?

Fox Sports Lab statistics offer plenty of answers.

Galloping forward

At its core, rugby league is a simple game and Brisbane’s turnaround is best illustrated by a straightforward statistic.

In their miserable past two seasons, the Broncos had dismal averages of total metres recorded per game; a combination of metres made from runs and kicks. They averaged 1794m per game in 2020, last in the NRL, and 1908m in 2021, ranking 12th. Their substandard output was reflected in 16th and 14th-placed respective finishes.

Yet this year, Brisbane’s total metres per game sit at 1990, ranking fourth in the NRL and nearing their 2003m average output of 2019, the last season in which they made the finals. The Broncos are fifth on the ladder through 11 rounds, boasting five consecutive wins.

Producing elite yardage can’t happen without a sound completion rate. Brisbane are completing 77 per cent of their sets this season, ranking eighth; just one percentage point below Melbourne Storm (Parramatta ranks first with 83 per cent).

The more metres you make, relative to your opponent, the more likely you are to win; and win well. Simple. Yet herein may lie a problem for the Broncos, so far as becoming a genuine NRL contender.

Brisbane remain among the NRL’s cellar dwellers for total metres conceded per game; an average of 1980m ranks them 15th and gives them a net metres figure of just +10. That net figure still ranks them sixth and may be a by-product of defensive strategy; being willing to concede metres and defend closer to their line, which by consensus is easier. Yet the other sides with a positive net metres figure, those alongside Brisbane in the top six, boast a far healthier margin: Penrith (337), Melbourne (297), North Queensland (264), Parramatta (127) and Cronulla (121).

The basic stats favour Brisbane: 233 points for (21.18 per game, ranking equal-sixth), 181 points against (16.45 per game, ranking fifth), points differential 52 (ranking fifth, matching their ladder position). Last season, they scored 446 points (18.58 per game, ranking 14th), conceded 695 points (28.96 per game, ranking 13th), with a differential of -249 while finishing third-last.

Broncos great Corey Parker, a 2006 premiership winner and disciple of committed defence, reckons Brisbane have found another level on both sides of the ball this season.

“Defensively, all I can see that’s working a lot differently is they’re just jamming; just flying up off the line and cutting down all time and space for whoever they’re playing against, and they’re getting some reward for that,” Parker, now a Fox League analyst, tells CodeSports. “And offensively, they’ve taken their game to another level.”

In their most recent game with marquee halfback Adam Reynolds at the helm, they smashed Manly 38-0.

“That was their best performance in three years,” Parker says.

Reborn Reynolds

Brisbane figured they were buying an experienced general when they signed an unwanted Reynolds from South Sydney. An organising No.7, not a game-breaker.

Yet the 2014 premiership winner is playing both roles.

Reynolds is running the football 3.6 times per game, more often than he has since 2015 (3.9). And he is also venturing more often into dangerous territory when passing, with his 12.2 line engagements per game the most Fox Sports Lab has on record (since 2015) for the little halfback; even though he has always rated among the NRL’s elite in this area.

Those efforts are showing up where it matters: on the scoreboard.

A comparison of Reynolds’ past five seasons shows that his try involvements per game (2.0) are the highest they’ve been since at least 2018. He has four tries, 11 try assists and three secondary try assists so far this season from nine games.

The primary try assists figure speaks to his new freedom as a playmaker. Cody Walker dominated that statistical category at Souths, while Latrell Mitchell, Dane Gagai, Damien Cook and Benji Marshall all clocked strong numbers last season. At Brisbane, Reynolds is the man.

His 11 try assists this season easily lead the Broncos, with Tyson Gamble next best on three. Reynolds will easily account for Gamble’s team-best total try involvements (20, in 13 games) from last season.

“It’s probably the first time in Adam Reynolds’ career that he’s had to come up with some big plays … and he’s really enjoying that role,” Parker says.

“While he was at Souths, while he had some wonderful players around him – Cody Walker, Luke Keary, Greg Inglis, Sam Burgess, John Sutton – he was sort of just facilitating a game plan. And doing a really good job of it but now, he’s coming up with some creativity for the team and for himself.

“He scored a wonderful individual try the other night (a chip-and-chase against Manly that was dubbed Allan-Langer like). It’s like it’s been a new lease of life for him and he’s certainly playing that way.”

Reynolds has done it without reinventing his fundamentals. He is still playing predominantly on the right side of the field. He is touching the ball more times per game (49.1) than he has in the previous four seasons and the most famed part of his arsenal, his long kicking, has boomed.

Reynolds is kicking for 504m per game this season, No.1 in the NRL ahead of Nathan Cleary (486m). He is up enormously on his outputs of the past four years; his next best was 379m in 2020. Reynolds’ goalkicking remains elite at 84 per cent, though he is yet to really boost Brisbane’s forced drop-outs; he has six this season, sub-par by his standards, and the Broncos have 10 in total, ranking 13th.

Brisbane curiously remain last in the NRL for being tackled within the opposition 20; but just as it is deemed easier to defend on the tryline, it is harder to score from within the red zone. It is yet to badly hurt the Broncos, though their 40 tries this season (ranked eighth) lag far behind Melbourne’s 61. They remain a work in progress.

Ezra Mam, 19, debuted and starred for Brisbane last weekend against the Knights in a 36-12 win. The livewire halfback has shown that he has the potential to succeed Reynolds, 31, and will again cover his injury absence (groin) against the Titans on Friday.

Payne in the Haas eases

Reynolds offers more to Brisbane than just statistical excellence. He is a cool head who knows how to manage a game, something that the Broncos have lacked horribly in recent seasons.

He makes other players better by doing his job so meticulously.

“The confidence that Adam Reynolds had given that team has been quite astounding, particularly over the last month,” Parker says.

“When you’ve got a halfback that can dictate and direct you around and kick well, which has been a real issue for the Broncos, it allows middle forwards and edge forwards to really empty the tank. You’re not saving anything because you know that you’ve got a halfback who’s gonna do what he needs to do.

“He’s going to execute, kick where he needs to kick. There’s no unforced areas in the game that are letting you down.”

Reynolds’ secondary impacts are boosting Brisbane’s stat sheets.

In pre-season, Fox Sports Lab examined the burden that Test prop Payne Haas was shouldering for the Broncos. He was taking a greater percentage of his team’s hard carries than any other player in the NRL, by some margin.

While that is still the case, he now has a fellow red-lining forward at Brisbane: rugged lock Patrick Carrigan.

“He’s a bigger body who can play really long minutes and he’s in great form for Brisbane, as well as he’s ever played,” Parker says.

Touted for a Queensland Origin debut this season, Carrigan takes 13.66 per cent of his team’s hard runs, ranking seventh in the NRL. That puts him above elite forwards Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Jason Taumalolo and Christian Welch, while Haas (18.33 per cent) keeps top spot by nearly two whole percentage points from Newcastle’s David Klemmer.

Backline players fill out the remainder of the top five metre-eaters for Brisbane this season. The list for average metres per game reads: Haas (167m), Corey Oates (162m), Carrigan (129m), Selwyn Cobbo (125m) and Herbie Farnworth (122m). Haas and Oates rank sixth and seventh respectively in the NRL; fourth and fifth when you filter out Cronulla pair Lachie Miller and Matt Ikuvalu, who have played three games between them in 2022.

Barring Farnworth, who is down only marginally, each of the Brisbane players have lifted their output from last season; Cobbo spectacularly so, adding an extra 30m per game. And those metres often aren’t easy; he has shown the grit required to play wing in an era where they cop all the hard carries out of their own end, early in a new set.

“The mongrel that Selwyn has shown, on top of the speed and skill, is terrific,” Parker says. “His ability to work and come up with those really tough carries … not everyone has [it] in them but he certainly does.”

The Cherbourg product is a special talent and he too is being touted for a maiden Maroons jersey. He has brilliantly filled the void left at Brisbane after incumbent Queensland winger Xavier Coates joined Melbourne. Cobbo has nine tries for the Broncos this season, behind Oates with 10, while Farnworth has notched seven four-pointers in another strong campaign for the English ace.