Corey Parker: My NRL 2023 season predictions for the Broncos, Dolphins, Cowboys and Titans

*****

Brisbane Broncos

The Brisbane Broncos have to play finals football this season.

It’s a non-negotiable.

They haven’t been there the past three years and that type of failure just isn’t in the club’s DNA.

With the talent on this roster, I expect Brisbane to make the eight.

They were sitting fourth with six weeks to go last season and imploded. If things go wrong again, Kevin Walters will be under enormous pressure to keep his job as coach.

That’s where the buck stops in professional sport, even though the Broncos players really need to hold themselves accountable.

I have one lingering concern over the comments about Kevvy from Selwyn Cobbo, that he’s a good bloke but not a good coach.

Kevvy is the only NRL coach that Selwyn has played under. As a young player, he doesn’t really know what a good NRL coach looks like, to be honest.

So are those comments only his, or picked up from the locker room? Do they reflect just Selwyn’s thoughts, or also those of other Broncos players?

If I’m a Brisbane administrator, I’m a bit concerned as to how Selwyn has come up with that; whether it’s indicative of broader thinking among the players. I’d be addressing that side of it (and I’m sure they have) because we’ve already seen similar comments last season from Tyson Gamble, plus the whole episode with Payne Haas requesting a release even when they were winning games.

From the club’s perspective, fresh noise around Kevvy’s standing with the players is definitely not something that you want to be dealing with. It’s another disruption.

There’s only one way to silence disruptions: winning games. I’m not surprised that the Broncos are also making noise about extending Kevvy’s contract, to take the heat out of the speculation and put everyone – Kevvy, his agent, the players and the media – at bay for now.

Brisbane saying they want to re-sign Kevvy for another two years means little anyway. It’s been well publicised that his contract terms are all in favour of the Broncos, so if things go pear-shaped this year and they need to terminate the deal, they can do so without any payout.

Things will get very interesting if the Broncos start poorly. A strong start is so important for a club that desperately wants to get back to finals football and looking at their draw, they should taste some early victories.

Brisbane aren’t a normal NRL team. Having been a one-team town for so long, there’s enormous scrutiny squarely on the Broncos when things aren’t going well. Massive pressure will come down if things don’t start well.

And the poor end to last season, I believe, showed up a lack of toughness; bad habits stretching right back to their pre-season. Only time will tell if the noises out of this pre-season – that they’ve worked hard on their defensive systems and made resilience under pressure a priority – ring true.

The Broncos can’t miss the finals again. They just can’t.

I believe they’ll be back in the eight this season – but now comes the time for them to go and make it happen.

*****

Selwyn Cobbo also poses another looming conundrum for Brisbane. There’s no doubt in my mind that he will ultimately be a fullback; as he was in last week’s trial when Reece Walsh didn’t play.

He’s a footy player, Selwyn. Like Reece, he can do special things and brings his own unique attributes as a No.1. It will be interesting to see how that unfolds, in the same way it will be at the Roosters with James Tedesco and Joseph Manu, plus Joseph Sua’ali’i. Manu is a walk-up start to play fullback at basically any other club in the NRL; and with Selwyn and Reece, different clubs would go for different attributes, depending on the fit in their team.

For now, both are contract at the Broncos until the end of 2025.

There’s already been some speculation that perhaps Reece ends up as a five-eighth, but I think Ezra Mam has a massive future in the Broncos halves. He’ll be in especially good stead if he gets to spend another two full seasons learning his trade alongside Reynolds, developing as the potential future general of the team.

It’s very much a ‘watch this space’ scenario. The hooker position, too, with Billy Walters, Cory Paix, Tyson Smoothy and Blake Mozer all in the mix.

The spine for the first game, I believe, will be Reece Walsh at No.1, Ezra Mam at No.6, Adam Reynolds at No.7 and Billy Walters at No.9. Outside of Reynolds, that’s a very young spine – less than 100 games between them in the NRL – so the halfback’s vast experience will be crucial and Brisbane will be praying he stays healthy. Whether or not he can play a full season is a concern.

It’s a really fine line in the key positions. These young guys will only get experience and cohesion by playing plenty of games together, yet there’ll be major pressure to change things if success doesn’t come quickly.

Walsh should be a great addition. The Broncos have got back a more mature player and man than they farewelled to the Warriors a couple of years ago. He’s become a father. He’s nearing 50 NRL games. He’s still young and full of that exciting attacking flair, but at a point where he’s further developing his game.

The No.1 priority for Reece should be how he goes about his defensive organisation, plus his individual defence. That’s not yet his strong suit and the best fullbacks in the game, from James Tedesco down, are outstanding in defence.

That’s what the Broncos really need from Reece, just as much as his attacking brilliance.

Dolphins

Wins will be hard to come by in the Dolphins’ inaugural season. Without being disrespectful, their roster gives you little to do backflips about. They never landed that genuine marquee signing to really launch their foray into the NRL.

Jesse Bromwich is nearing the end of his career at age 33. He’s won competitions at Melbourne but his best footy is behind him. That’s no knock on him; he’s tough, experienced and professional, and therefore exactly the kind of player you want younger, less experienced guys looking up to as you build a new club.

Kenny Bromwich and Felise Kaufusi were excellent servants of the Storm, yet also have more good football behind them than in front. They’re decorated players who have had plenty of success, as Tom Gilbert also did with the Cowboys last season, but it’s fair to say that they’re surrounded by players who mostly came to the Dolphins having not been automatic first grade selections at their former clubs.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow could be a great pick-up at fullback, having moved on from the Cowboys. Sean O’Sullivan comes from a back-up halfback role in a premiership season at Penrith, while Anthony Milford gets another opportunity in a starting halves role. Jeremy Marshall-King was decent at hooker for the Bulldogs last year. Jarrod Wallace and Herman Ese’ese add further experience in the pack. All these guys will be intent on showing something.

But the fact is, no one is expecting much from the Dolphins in their first season. Not the other teams, not the fans. At this stage, they just don’t have the players.

But what I do know Wayne Bennett will be instilling in the players is competitiveness. Habits that can build the foundations of a good side in future. They’ll want to at least give a good account of themselves, the Dolphins; they’re still fishing for a big-name signing, for one thing, and need to show that they’ve got the makings of a decent footy team.

If you get beaten on talent and skill, fair enough, especially at this stage. But don’t get beaten on your willingness to compete. Wayne won’t cop that. Nor will Kristian Woolf, the decorated assistant coach who will eventually take over the head role. Kristian and Nathan Fien will already be doing all the technical coaching. I don’t reckon Wayne has jumped on a computer in the last decade, seriously! But that’s one of his biggest skills: he’s the front man and he delegates to get exactly what he needs from the assistants.

If they can have a crack, the Dolphins will at least win some games. But against 16 existing clubs that already have combinations and cohesion in place, it’ll largely be tough going.

North Queensland Cowboys

One thing about North Queensland: they aren’t flying under any sort of radar this year.

Off a poor 2021, they had an exceptional 2022 under Todd Payten, setting the bar high for this year. But with the brand of footy they play, based on consistently elite defence, I think they can repeat that success.

They look to me like a genuine top-four team.

Tom Gilbert and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are gone but the roster is otherwise intact, with the bonus of having a couple of quality players – Heilum Luki and Mitch Dunn – back from injury. James Tamou’s return adds depth, though I don’t see him playing the full season in first grade if everyone is fit, at this late stage of his career.

There were success stories all over the park for the Cowboys last season, from Jason Taumalolo’s resurgence to breakout players in the spine. Scott Drinkwater didn’t even start the season as their fullback, yet finished with the most try assists of any No.1 in the NRL. He was massive and duly rewarded with a big contract.

Reece Robson was outstanding at hooker. Tom Dearden was terrific at five-eighth, from that brilliant Queensland debut in the State of Origin decider to his combination each week with Chad Townsend. I had major reservations about Townsend being brought to North Queensland on big money late in his career, yet it worked. His experience at halfback was a perfect fit with a young, energetic spine.

The Cowboys’ brand of footy works well with how the game is officiated now and also shows off all their strengths. I certainly think they can do it all again this year, having gone within one game of the grand final last season.

Gold Coast Titans

Gold Coast’s biggest problem is their ability to play tough for long periods of time. To stay resilient for entire games and remain in the fight.

The Titans can mix it with the best teams when things are going well but when it becomes a slugfest, a back-and-forth game of footy that requires you to bite down on the mouthguard and dig in, they struggle. Partly, that’s because they’ve got plenty of young guys who don’t yet understand how to deal with that type of footy.

Adding Kieran Foran will help instil a tougher, more stoic mindset; rather than just throwing the ball around, you kick to the corner, chase hard and put on a big defensive set. You build habits that can keep you in games from the first to the 80th minute.

Aside from Foran, their spine may again be a problem. AJ Brimson is a good player. Tanah Boyd, another good player who’ll further learn his craft in the halves alongside Foran. Sam Verrills at hooker is a good addition, having won a comp with the Roosters; albeit in a pretty fair side. Guys like Jayden Campbell and Toby Sexton haven’t proven themselves the genuine article just yet. There’s talent and quality there, yet with respect, it’s not comparable to the top sides.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui will set the standard in the middle. David Fifita, coming off contract, needs a big year. At any club, the roster is so crucial. Coach Justin Holbrook has to hope he has the cattle at his disposal to regain success, or his job will be on the line.

Really, I’d like to start seeing the Titans win some games 12-10; not 38-28, as we’ve seen so often. I want them to get down and dirty, find and stick to some tough values in defence. That’s the next step for them: building a toughness that can deliver consistent success.

If they’re prepared to win ugly, prepared to do the hard stuff more often than they have in the past, they could be sniffing around the 7-8-9 spots on the ladder. At this stage, it’s a big ‘if’ … but maybe they’ll surprise us.