Matty Johns: Where the NRL semi-finals will be won and lost

RAIDERS V SHARKS

CRUCIAL MATCHUP - JAMAL FOGARTY V BRAYDON TRINDALL

These two playmakers could not have a more contrasting week one of the finals.

Trindall had arguably the best, most important performance of his career. His direction and pass selection beating the Sydney Roosters was first class.

Fogarty’s greatest asset is his composure, but that deserted him in numerous big moments late in the 29-28 golden point extra-time loss to the Brisbane Broncos.

The Raiders were clumsy and looked lost when attempting to find a field goal to win the match late, and that is Fogarty’s domain.

In addition, some of the Raiders’ youngsters, who’ve been outstanding all season, came up with poor plays in the high-pressure furnace of finals. And again, that’s a key responsibility of Fogarty, to provide a calming influence.

These next few weeks will define how Fogarty is remembered as a Raider.

THE X-FACTOR - PHYSICAL AND MENTAL FATIGUE

This is possibly the most crucial factor in the match.

The Raiders’ epic finals defeat last Sunday will impact the team, It’s just a matter of how much.

From a physical point of view, I don’t know if I’ve seen a game so demanding, as far as speed, intensity and duration are concerned.

Dry Sunday afternoon football is faster and more expansive; so it’s far more physically draining, particularly in defence.

Both sets of forwards looked out on their feet at the back end of the first half, so you can only imagine how drained they were by the time the winning field goal bounced in off the upright after almost 100 minutes.

And getting up mentally is going to be even tougher.

This is a huge challenge for the Raiders.

THE THREE MOST CRUCIAL RAIDERS

JAMAL FOGARTY

He’s got the experience and he’s wearing the seven jersey. He has to control the game

JOSH PAPALI’I

Billy Slater reached out to Papali’i before the State of Origin decider because he needed a strong, intimidating, leader in the middle of the park .

The strain of matches like last Sunday impacts the older, bigger players in the centre field, rather than the young Flash Harrys out wide.

Ricky will look to Fogarty for composure and Big Papa for midfield and intimidation.

As far as leadership, this is one of Josh’s biggest games and greatest challenges.

ETHAN STRANGE

Every team has a pulse, an energy man. For the Sharks, It’s Ronaldo Mulitalo. For the Raiders, it’s Ethan Strange.

Like most of the Raiders, Strange was outstanding for the first 66 minutes last week. But, with 14 to go in regular time, as the Broncos started their comeback, he tightened up and was in someway symbolic of how the Raiders stopped playing their style of football.

Strange doesn’t need to do anything special on Saturday night, just do as he’s done all season: stay in the contest, be Ethan Strange.

THE THREE MOST CRUCIAL SHARKS

BRAYDON TRINDALL

Press repeat on last week.

The way he and Nicho Hynes have found their combination, along with hooker Blake Brailey, has been a cornerstone of the Sharks’ late-season surge.

RONALDO MULITALO

You gotta love this bloke.

Like I wrote last week, he’s the pulse; he brings the swagger, the menace, the chirp.

Going into last Saturday night he talked up a big game and then delivered on the promise.

His yardage work is even more crucial than his finishing.

ADDIN FONUA-BLAKE

One of the best middle forwards I’ve ever seen.

Size and power is difficult to defend, but add light footwork to that and it’s a nightmare.

When the game was on the line against the Roosters last Saturday night, he was the Alpha.

Watch Fonua-Blake and Josh Papali’i go at it in a key battle.

WHY THE RAIDERS WIN

A loss, or more to the point, a poor end to a quality game, doesn’t suddenly make you a bad team. The Raiders have been the season’s best side and will learn from what transpired in the last 14 minutes of regular time last Sunday.

The Raiders simply stopped playing football and that’s what beat them.

All year they’ve played their style regardless of the circumstance. Expect a return to their best selves.

The Raiders are supremely fit and will be able to bounce back from Sunday’s gruelling contest.

On top of that, the Raiders are as tough to beat at home, in night football as the Storm were in their peak years.

WHY THE SHARKS WIN

Confidence and momentum.

There’s been a big mental switch between these two sides.

While the Raiders are piecing themselves back together, the Sharks are up on their toes and growing in belief with each victory.

The Sharks’ left-side attack has been outstanding and they’re placed up against a Raiders edge who have had huge problems and struggled to contain the Broncos in last Sunday’s contest.

The Sharks will target Matt Timoko and Jamal Fogarty, who, as a defensive combination, are battling.

The Sharks are fresh and will finish over the top of the tired Raiders.

THE VERDICT

It’s a big challenge, but I’m backing the Raiders to win this, even if they’re not as fresh as the Sharks.

If the Raiders had continued to attack last week, rather than trying to defend to victory, they win, maybe comfortably.

Ricky Stuart will be able to lift them physically and emotionally.

Raiders by 8

BULLDOGS V PANTHERS

THE CRUCIAL MATCHUP - NATHAN CLEARY V CONNOR TRACEY

The Warriors more than held up physically against the Panthers last week, but it was intelligence and precise kicking from Nathan Cleary which served them defeat.

Bulldogs fullback Connor Tracey faces a huge challenge, defusing Cleary’s array of attacking kicks, handling his lethal bombs and protecting his side from Cleary 40/20s.

X-FACTOR - REED MAHONEY

As expected, Reed Mahoney gets a bench spot.

After all the controversy, commentary and angst, both Mahoney and Toby Sexton return for the biggest games.

Mahoney gives coach Ciraldo flexibility in that Bailey Hayward‘s best football was played as a midfield ballplayer and Mahoney’s entry to the game could see Hayward switch to that role, which suits his football more at this time.

Haywood in a 13 role alleviates pressure off Lachlan Galvin.

THREE MOST CRUCIAL PANTHERS

NATHAN CLEARY

For reasons which are obvious to all.

ISAAH YEO

The man most charged with deciding if the play goes north-south or east-west.

When Yeo’s decision making is on, Penrith rarely get beat.

BRIAN TO’O

Along with Dylan Edwards, the Panthers’ chief yardage man.

You can’t stop To’o, you just need to minimise his metre making. His post-contact metres are huge, so the Bulldogs should look to make a side-on legs tackle from marker and immediately halt his momentum.

If the Bulldogs can restrict To’o’s metreage to less than 200 metres they’ve done an outstanding job.

THREE MOST CRUCIAL BULLDOGS

TOBY SEXTON

He was criticised midseason for a lack of creativity, but that overlooked his calming influence.

The Bulldogs’ quest for a more dangerous attack has resulted in a spike in errors and that’s the major cause of their struggles in the back end of the season.

Sexton will give their attack stability.

VILIAME KIKAU

Wasn’t used enough against the Storm. Each time he had the ball the Dogs looked their most dangerous.

Canterbury need to work toward a sideline, open the field up and isolate Kikau on a smaller edge defender.

MATT BURTON

I’m guessing he’ll play at left centre and Xerri on the right.

Burton, in yardage, needs to still position himself for the kick.

Dylan Edwards is having a difficult time under the high ball and no one hits them higher than Burton.

WHY THE BULLDOGS WIN

Canterbury are at their best and most comfortable when they are, excuse the pun, underdogs.

Watch them play with the energy of a team with nothing to lose.

Last week, we saw the young Raiders players struggle in the high-pressure furnace

that finals bring, so watch the Bulldogs exert big pressure on Blaize Talagi.

If they can generate ruck momentum and quick play balls, their smaller, faster, more skilled pack can create problems for Penrith.

Also, that smaller, faster pack will swarm the Panthers’ big men, a feature of their early season success.

WHY THE PANTHERS WIN

Last week, it took awhile for Penrith to get their template on, kicking into the corner pockets and suffocating the Warriors with a rushing defence, but once they did, so did the dismantling process.

If the Panthers just do a few very simple things: defend strong, win yardage and get Cleary into regular position for attacking kicks, I don’t know who beats them.

VERDICT

It’s Penrith.

They’ll relish the atmosphere and conditions of Sunday afternoon football.

There at full strength for the first time this season, with hooker Mitch Kenny named on an extended bench and expected to play. Kenny is the Panthers’ defensive skipper, he’ll stiffen them up significantly.

Penrith by 14.